EUR/USD to 1.1600? GBP/USD and AUD/USD test resist.
EUR/USD is currently pressing against the pivotal point of 1.1600, a target that analysts are closely monitoring amidst ongoing market dynamics. Despite today's rally, the pair’s trajectory depends significantly on broader economic indicators and labor data outcomes. The headlines suggest a bullish sentiment, but our desk emphasizes the need for caution, especially with mixed signals from notable forecasters.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1600 (median across firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.2000) and TMG at the lower (1.1447). The headline's projection for a need to reach 1.1600 aligns closely with our consensus level, indicating potential for that upward momentum in the near term.
How firms align
Goldman, JPMorgan, and ING are among the firms anticipating a target of 1.1800 to 1.2000 over the coming months, reflecting a bullish view that supports the narrative of hitting 1.1600 soon. Conversely, TMG and Investec are more conservative, signaling cautiousness around the current spot level.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate an optimistic shift from Deutsche Bank and ING, with both raising their near-term targets to 1.1800. Our published research corroborates this momentum, highlighting that the pair has been closing in on levels supportive of a move towards 1.1600. Citing our report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-16 could provide further insights into potential ECB influences.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently targets 1.1600; watch key indicators for direction.
- 02Should USD maintain weakness, expect a rally towards 1.1600.
- 03Upcoming labor data on the calendar is crucial for momentum.
- 04Potentially bullish sentiment if spot holds near current levels.
Market implications
Going forward, monitor approaches to the resistance at 1.1600 closely. The upcoming labor statistics could sway trader positions and influence whether the pair can sustain its bullish bias, as our consensus number supports potential advances.
Risks to this view
A significant change in U.S. economic data or a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve rhetoric could challenge the bullish outlook for EUR/USD. Specifically, strong employment figures may lead to a reversal in sentiment towards the USD.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.40
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro returns below 1.1600 as US Dollar selling pressure eases
Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD bullish momentum targeting 1.17 mid-levels suggests positioning for further dollar weakness if technical breaks hold.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo.
EUR/USD technical break above 1.1600 and 100-SMA signals continuation risk; monitor for resistance targets above current levels.
EUR/USD at eight-week high: What happens next
EUR/USD strength to eight-week highs tests resistance; break above could signal shift in rate-cut expectations favoring EUR over USD.
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1580, Median 1.16 — Week of August 17, 2026
EUR/USD spot at 1.1580 sits just 0.18% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, masking a 0.14 dispersion range from Citi's 1.10 to Nordea's 1.24.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1571, Median Target 1.16 — Week of August 16, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1571, just 0.25% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, but a 0.14 dispersion range signals deep disagreement beneath the surface.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1571, Median Target 1.16 — Week of August 15, 2026
EUR/USD spot at 1.15705 sits just 0.25% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, masking a 0.14 dispersion range from Citi's 1.10 to Nordea's 1.24.