Euro rebounds above 1.1250 after weak US jobs data weighs on US Dollar
The EUR/USD surged above the 1.1250 mark following disappointing US jobs data, which has prompted market participants to reassess their views on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. With weaker payroll figures undermining USD support, we are observing a notable shift towards risk-on sentiment favoring the Euro. This rebound signals a broader reassessment of the Fed's tightening path, raising questions about the future strength of the US dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with the highest forecast from CIBC at 1.1866 and the lowest from Lloyds at 1.1200. The recent sentiment shift aligns with several forecasts indicating bullish expectations for the Euro moving forward.
How firms align
Firms such as JPMorgan and SocGen hold optimistic views with targets at 1.1800 and 1.1700 for March 2026, respectively, reflecting a belief in sustained Euro strength. In contrast, Citi's target of 1.1300 suggests a more cautious approach, diverging significantly from the broader bullish consensus. For detailed insights, refer to our internal reports for each firm, including /reports/jpmorgan and /reports/socgen.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen UOB and ING aligning their March 2026 targets to 1.1536 and 1.1700, respectively, further supporting a bullish outlook. Check our piece on the /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for a deeper dive into this momentum.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD shows resilience above 1.1250, signaling bullish sentiment.
- 02Weak US jobs data likely delays Fed rate hikes; watch USD crosses.
- 03March 2026 consensus target is 1.1700, reflecting a bullish outlook.
- 04Market positioning is shifting toward risk-on, favoring the Euro.
Market implications
Investors should monitor for a potential challenge to resistance levels near 1.1500, as further economic data might dictate momentum. The upcoming Fed meeting could serve as a crucial pivot for USD positioning relative to our consensus target of 1.1700 for March.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected recovery in US job growth could invalidate the current bullish sentiment on the Euro, reversing recent gains against the USD. Additionally, hawkish signals from the Fed would challenge the prevailing outlook for the EUR.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: French risk premium weighs on Euro – ING
French political uncertainty elevates eurozone tail risk and narrows the case for ECB rate cuts near-term, supporting USD/EUR higher.
EUR/USD: Under pressure on Euro stress – Deutsche Bank
EUR weakness from unspecified stress factors creates near-term USD strength; monitor for specific source to assess sustainability.