Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The weekly forex forecast presents a stable outlook for major pairs, including EUR/USD, where the current spot at 1.1446 is viewed against a consensus of 1.1684 for December 2026. The market appears to be digesting recent sentiment adjustments, with a neutral stance observed across major currencies as traders evaluate economic data and policy signals. As positioning stabilizes, the upcoming ECB decisions and global growth narratives will likely inject volatility into the forecasts.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1684 (median across 12 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2300) and Danske Bank at the lower bound (1.1100). The forecast aligns with the neutral sentiment currently prevailing in the market, indicating cautious expectations as traders await more definitive economic signals.
How firms align
Among the firms providing forecasts, Société Générale and Nomura are optimistic, targeting 1.2000 for March 2026, while RBC's projection of 1.1700 indicates a more moderate approach. Conversely, Danske Bank holds a more bearish view with a March target of 1.1866, opposing the consensus as highlighted in our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-21 analysis.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a slight upward adjustment for EUR targets, seen in Scotiabank's revision to 1.1734 for March 2026. This sentiment is illustrated in our recent insights, especially in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path where divergence from current spot prices is emphasized.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD is 1.1446, below the December target of 1.1684.
- 02Key focus on ECB policy signals will dictate near-term volatility.
- 03Expect traders to react to U.S. economic data releases next week.
- 04Bearish sentiment from firms like Danske Bank suggests caution.
Market implications
Watch for EUR/USD to test resistance at 1.15 as traders digest upcoming ECB signals and U.S. economic data. The consensus of 1.1684 remains a critical target that could dictate market positioning heading into December.
Risks to this view
A shift in ECB policy tone or unexpected U.S. economic data could invalidate the current EUR/USD forecast. A rate hike or dovish remark could quickly alter market sentiment and push the pair beyond current targets.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Catching the 220 pip move lower and hitting the 2R target
Technical breakdown in EUR/USD confirms downside momentum; watch for support hold near 1.05 to assess whether move has legs.
Euro declines as US Dollar recovers recent losses amid hawkish Fed tone
Fed hawkish signals support USD recovery; EUR/USD correction likely continues absent ECB policy divergence clarification.
Euro: Fair value drop points to downside against US Dollar – ING
ING's fair value reassessment signals structural EUR/USD weakness; re-anchor portfolio hedges and monitor 1.05–1.08 pivot zones.
Euro: Downtrend eyes 1.1400 support against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend targeting 1.1400 suggests technical breakdown risk that could extend if US data remains supportive or ECB signals additional easing.
Bank desks on this topic
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FX Daily: New central bank calls, unchanged EUR/USD view
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD at 1.1432 Sits 2.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus of 1.1684
EUR/USD spot at 1.1432 trails the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1684 by 2.16%, with a 0.14 dispersion range signalling material disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1468, Median Target 1.1684 — Week of September 21, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 1.85% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1684, with a 0.14 dispersion range signalling material disagreement on the Fed-ECB endgame.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1486, Median Target 1.1684 — Week of September 19, 2026
EUR/USD trades 1.69% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1684, with a 0.14 range separating Nordea's 1.24 bull case from Citi's 1.10 floor.