On this page · 3 sections▾
AUD/USD is quoted at 0.7125 as of the week of September 19, 2026 — effectively in line with the 24-firm full AUD/USD bank forecast table consensus median of 0.71 for December 2026, a gap of just 0.35%. The headline alignment obscures a wide 0.08 dispersion between the most bullish and most bearish desks, reflecting genuine disagreement on the RBA-Fed rate path, China's growth trajectory, and iron-ore's staying power.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (September 19, 2026): 0.7125
- Cross-firm consensus Dec-26 median (24 firms): 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.08
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +0.35% (spot above consensus)
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Citi at 0.67
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| BNP Paribas | 0.68 | bullish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 0.71 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.712 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 0.73 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| Standard Chartered | 0.75 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
What is driving the RBA-Fed rate spread, and how are desks pricing it?
Each firm's Q4 2026 AUD/USD target back-solved to an implied US − AU 10y spread via covered-interest-parity. Anchored at the observed 10y rates on 2026-09-19.
Source: Tmgm · Société Générale · RBC · Uob +20 more
24 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-19 21:08 UTC
The central fault line in AUD/USD forecasting remains the relative pace of RBA easing versus Fed easing. The RBA entered 2026 later in its cutting cycle than the Fed, and desks that price a shallower, slower RBA path relative to the Fed tend to cluster toward the upper end of the range — the 0.73–0.75 corridor occupied by UBS, ING, Standard Chartered, and Scotiabank. Their logic: if the Fed cuts more aggressively into year-end, the AUD/USD rate differential compresses in Australia's favour, lifting the pair toward 0.73–0.75.
Desks at the lower end of the distribution tell the opposite story. BNP Paribas and J.P. Morgan both hold 0.68 targets — 6.5% below current spot — despite carrying a bullish stance designation on the pair. That apparent tension resolves when the narrative context is applied: both desks see AUD/USD recovering from a lower base, with BNP's published view framing the Aussie as roughly 5.6% weaker against the dollar from its reference spot. The implication is that these desks expect near-term softness before any year-end recovery, pricing a Fed that stays higher for longer relative to market forwards, or an RBA that cuts more than consensus expects.
Goldman Sachs presents the most striking internal arithmetic: a 0.70 Dec-26 target alongside a bullish stance, derived from a reference spot of 0.6400 — implying roughly 9.4% AUD appreciation from that base. Goldman's framework appears to embed a scenario in which AUD/USD has already corrected sharply before the forecast horizon, with the 0.70 level representing a meaningful recovery rather than a mild decline from current levels.
Where is dispersion widest, and what does the China-commodity variable explain?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Citi · JPMorgan · BNP Paribas · Tmgm +20 more
24 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-19 21:08 UTC
At 0.08 between Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling and Citi's 0.67 floor, the dispersion across all 24 firms is the widest it has been in several quarters. That spread is not primarily a function of differing rate assumptions — it is a function of China. AUD/USD carries the highest G10 beta to Chinese growth proxies, and iron-ore prices remain the most reliable transmission mechanism. Desks that embed a China stabilisation scenario — whether driven by fiscal stimulus, property sector stabilisation, or a recovery in steel output — tend to sit in the 0.72–0.75 range. Those that price a continued Chinese demand drag, with iron-ore under sustained pressure, anchor toward 0.67–0.70.
Société Générale and Crédit Agricole both target 0.712–0.73, a cluster that reflects a middle-path China view: not a hard landing, but no meaningful acceleration either. Rabobank at 0.72 with a neutral stance similarly reflects a commodity beta that is neither a tailwind nor a headwind at current iron-ore levels. The commodity-sensitive desks that are most constructive — Standard Chartered at 0.75 — appear to price a more durable Chinese infrastructure spend cycle than the consensus median assumes.
With no fresh macro catalysts crossing the tape in the past seven days, the pair has been range-bound near 0.7125, and the absence of a directional catalyst has left the 24-firm median at 0.71 essentially unchanged. The next material input is likely to be either an RBA communication shift or a Chinese data release with enough weight to move iron-ore spot.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the AUD/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The 24-firm median target for AUD/USD at end-2026 is 0.71, compared with a current spot of 0.7125 — a gap of 0.35%, with spot marginally above the consensus level.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD forecast?
Scotiabank holds the most bullish Dec-26 target in the consensus at 0.75, implying roughly 5.3% upside from current spot of 0.7125.
Which bank has the lowest AUD/USD forecast?
Citi carries the most bearish Dec-26 target at 0.67, approximately 5.9% below current spot — the widest bearish outlier in a 24-firm panel with a max-min dispersion of 0.08.
How wide is the disagreement among banks on AUD/USD?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets across all 24 firms — stands at 0.08, reflecting material disagreement on the RBA-Fed spread, China's growth path, and the commodity-price outlook.
→ See the full Standard Chartered FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 0.75 Dec-26 target and the China demand assumptions underpinning it.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Bnpparibas →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Creditagricole →
Bank Forecast
Stanchart →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Continue tracking AUD/USD
More from AUD/USD
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7122, Median 0.71 — Week of September 21, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7122, a whisker above the 24-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.71, with an 0.08 spread separating Scotiabank's 0.75 bull case from Citi's 0.67 bear.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Week of September 20, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7125, a whisker above the 24-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.71, with an 0.08 range separating the most bullish and bearish desks.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7125, Week of September 18, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7125, effectively in line with the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, but an 0.08 dispersion range signals deep disagreement on the RBA-Fed path.
Share