On this page · 3 sections▾
AUD/USD sits at 0.7125 as of the week of September 20, 2026 — effectively in line with the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.71, as shown in the full AUD/USD bank forecast table. Across 24 contributing desks, the max-to-min dispersion of 0.08 is wide enough to warrant scrutiny of what each house is actually pricing in the RBA–Fed spread and China demand channels.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 20, 2026): 0.7125
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 24 firms): 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.08
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +0.35% — spot trades marginally above median
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75; Standard Chartered also at 0.75
- Most bearish: Citi at 0.67 (full 24-firm range)
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| BNP Paribas | 0.68 | bullish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 0.71 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.712 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 0.73 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
| Standard Chartered | 0.75 | bullish |
What is the RBA–Fed policy gap pricing into AUD/USD right now?
The central tension in AUD/USD through year-end is the relative pace of easing between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve. The majority of desks in this consensus assign a bullish stance to the pair — not because they expect the RBA to tighten, but because they price a faster Fed cutting cycle compressing the USD's yield advantage. Goldman Sachs targets 0.70 with a bullish label, a combination that implies the desk sees the pair's current 0.7125 as having already overshot its fair-value range — the directional call is for AUD to strengthen from wherever it troughs, not necessarily from spot. MUFG holds the same 0.70 target with an identical bullish stance, suggesting a similar view: near-term softness, medium-term recovery as the Fed easing impulse dominates.
BNP Paribas and J.P. Morgan both sit at 0.68 — the lowest targets among the 14 most recently updated desks — yet both carry a bullish stance. That apparent contradiction resolves when the narrative context is read: both houses appear to be marking down their spot reference while retaining a directional view that the pair recovers from a lower base. The rate-spread regime each prices is one where the RBA holds longer than the Fed cuts, a configuration that compresses AUD/USD in the near term before the commodity and risk-sentiment channels reassert.
Where is dispersion widest, and what drives the outlier targets?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Citi · JPMorgan · BNP Paribas · Tmgm +20 more
24 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-20 11:03 UTC
At 0.08 between the full 24-firm max and min, dispersion is material. Scotiabank and Standard Chartered anchor the top at 0.75. Scotiabank's neutral stance at that level is notable — the desk is not calling for a trend move higher from spot; it is simply marking a year-end level that reflects a base case of moderate USD softness and stable Chinese demand for bulk commodities. Standard Chartered's bullish label at the same target implies a more active conviction: the desk expects AUD/USD to move toward 0.75 from current levels, a 5.3% rally from spot.
At the other end, Citi's 0.67 (captured in the full 24-firm range but not in the 14-desk table) represents a scenario where China's property sector drag intensifies and iron ore prices retreat materially — the commodity beta channel working against AUD rather than for it. Iron ore's influence on AUD/USD remains one of the pair's most reliable structural relationships. When spot iron ore trades above $100/t, the AUD tends to find a floor; when it breaks lower, the currency's beta to global risk-off amplifies the move. The 0.08 dispersion in this consensus largely maps onto disagreement about where iron ore and Chinese industrial demand settle by December, not about the RBA's terminal rate.
UBS, Crédit Agricole, and ING cluster at 0.73 — a middle-ground view that prices a modest Fed-led USD retreat without requiring a China demand rebound. That cluster at 0.73 versus the median at 0.71 suggests the distribution is slightly right-skewed: more desks see upside risk than downside from current spot, even if the median itself is marginally below where the pair trades today.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does AUD/USD consensus stand as of September 20, 2026?
The 24-firm median Dec-26 target is 0.71, against a live spot of 0.7125 — a gap of just 0.35%, meaning the pair is effectively in line with consensus at this snapshot date.
Which bank has the most bullish AUD/USD forecast?
Scotiabank and Standard Chartered share the top target at 0.75; among the 14 most recently updated desks, Standard Chartered carries an explicit bullish stance at that level, implying a ~5.3% move higher from the September 20 spot of 0.7125.
How wide is the disagreement across bank forecasts?
The max-to-min dispersion across all 24 firms is 0.08, spanning from Citi's 0.67 floor to the 0.75 ceiling held by Scotiabank and Standard Chartered — a range that reflects genuine disagreement on China's commodity demand trajectory and the Fed's easing path.
Why do some bullish desks have targets below current spot?
Firms like Goldman Sachs and MUFG carry bullish stances with 0.70 targets because their directional call is relative to a lower near-term trough, not to current spot; they expect AUD/USD to weaken before recovering as Fed cuts compress the USD yield premium.
→ See the full Standard Chartered FX outlook for the complete rate-spread and commodity-beta framework behind the 0.75 year-end target.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Bnpparibas →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Creditagricole →
Bank Forecast
Stanchart →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Continue tracking AUD/USD
More from AUD/USD
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7122, Median 0.71 — Week of September 21, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7122, a whisker above the 24-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.71, with an 0.08 spread separating Scotiabank's 0.75 bull case from Citi's 0.67 bear.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: 0.7125 Spot, 0.71 Target — Week of September 19, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7125, a whisker above the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, but an 0.08 max-min spread signals deep disagreement on the path.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7125, Week of September 18, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7125, effectively in line with the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, but an 0.08 dispersion range signals deep disagreement on the RBA-Fed path.
Share