EUR/CHF and USD/CHF price forecast for 2026, as per UBS - Investing.com UK
UBS has provided a forecast for EUR/CHF and USD/CHF for the year 2026, imparting a significantly bearish outlook for both currency pairs. The analysis indicates sustained weakness in the CHF against both the EUR and USD, driven by anticipated shifts in monetary policies and economic conditions across key economies.
What the desk is arguing
The desk's thesis aligns with UBS's forecast that the Swiss Franc (CHF) will continue to depreciate against major currencies, with expectations for EUR/CHF drifting towards 0.7950 and USD/CHF towards lower levels in the coming years. This outlook is shaped by fundamental economic shifts, notably the projected divergence in monetary policies between the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and major central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
Supporting this view, our internal consensus suggests a downward trajectory for CHF, with a median target of 0.7800 by June 2026 and 0.7600 by December 2026, encapsulating a broader market sentiment that complements UBS’s predictions. The desk dismisses alternative scenarios where the CHF might appreciate, focusing instead on the consolidation of bearish signals driving their forecast forward.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01UBS expects significant weakening in CHF against EUR and USD by 2026.
- 02Internal consensus aligns with UBS's bearish forecasts for EUR/CHF and USD/CHF.
- 03The prevailing macroeconomic landscape supports a continued depreciation of the CHF.
Market implications
If the CHF continues on this projected depreciation path, it may prompt significant adjustments in hedging strategies among institutional investors. This could lead to increased demand for EUR and USD in the cross-currency markets, fundamentally reshaping trading volume dynamics and pricing strategies across forex desks.
Risks to this view
The main risk to this bearish outlook is a potential shift in the SNB's policy stance, which could provide unexpected support for the CHF. Additionally, any geopolitical developments or sudden economic recovery in Switzerland could alter this trajectory, leading to stronger CHF valuations against both the EUR and USD.
USD/CHF — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bullish | 0.75 |
ING | Bullish | 0.77 |
MUFG | Bullish | 0.76 |
Sources & References
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