Podcast: E-commerce and Corona with Adam Schatz, CEO of DIY and BHG Group
Per the full note source, Nordea's podcast with BHG Group CEO Adam Schatz explores the structural shift in e-commerce post-COVID, with implications for EUR/USD via Nordic consumer spending and investment flows. The desk sees online retail permanence supporting Nordic economic outperformance, which underpins a EUR/USD path to 1.22 (Nordea's Dec26 target) against consensus 1.20. Current spot at 1.1679 sits below the median, aligning with Nordea's bullish EUR view.
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that pandemic-era changes in consumer behavior, particularly the surge in online shopping for DIY and home furnishing, will prove largely permanent, reinforcing structural demand and investment in the Nordics. Per the full note source, CEO Adam Schatz of BHG Group notes the explosion in e-commerce during COVID and expects lasting shifts, benefiting Nordic e-tailers and the region's economic resilience.
Supporting this, Nordea's recent research on EUR/USD highlights a 3% discount to the Dec26 consensus of 1.20, implying upside if the Nordic economy continues to outperform. The alternative read—that the e-commerce boom fades as brick-and-mortar recovers—would undermine this thesis, but the desk implicitly rejects that, citing ongoing investment in digital infrastructure.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD at Dec26 is 1.20 (range 1.05–1.25). Nordea's Dec26 target of 1.2200 sits above the median, aligning with a bullish EUR view. Specific firms with similar Dec26 targets include: - commerzbank: 1.2200 - morganstanley: 1.2300 - deutschebank: 1.2500
Nordea's 1.22 call is at the upper end of the consensus range, matching the bullish contingent. The desk's view aligns with commerzbank and deutschebank but diverges from more bearish firms like goldman (1.05) and bnpparibas (1.08).
How other firms see it
Aligned firms include commerzbank, morganstanley, and deutschebank, all targeting above 1.20 for Dec26. Contrary bearish firms are goldman (1.05), bnpparibas (1.08), and citi (1.12), expecting EUR weakness. The divergence centers on whether structural e-commerce gains offset headwinds from US rate differentials.
Related currency pairs to watch are EUR/GBP and USD/SEK, as Nordic e-commerce trends and central bank policies intersect with the broader European outlook.
What the calendar says
No high-impact events are scheduled in the next 30 days, allowing structural themes like e-commerce permanence to drive EUR/USD gradually toward the desk's target.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Nordea's podcast signals structural e-commerce shift supports Nordic outperformance and EUR/USD upside.
- 02Dec26 consensus at 1.20; Nordea targets 1.22, aligning with bullish firms like deutschebank and morganstanley.
- 03Bearish risks from goldman (1.05) and bnpparibas (1.08) hinge on e-commerce reversal or US rate advantage.
- 04No near-term catalysts; gradual appreciation toward 1.22 expected.
Market implications
Watch for EUR/USD to grind toward 1.22 by Dec26 as structural e-commerce gains bolster Nordic investment flows. Key levels: 1.18 (current resistance) and 1.20 (consensus). A break above 1.20 would confirm the desk's call.
Risks to this view
The call is invalid if e-commerce normalization proves temporary or if the US economy re-accelerates, widening rate differentials. Unexpected hawkish ECB or dovish Fed could also cap EUR upside.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bearish | 1.1200 |
ANZ | Bearish | 1.1400 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1565 |
Podcast Podcast: E-commerce and Corona with Adam Schatz, CEO of DIY and BHG Group 08-12-2021 Johan Trocmé and Viktor Sonebäck from Nordea Thematics talk with Adam Schatz, CEO of DIY and Home Furnishing e-tailer BHG Group, about the explosion in online shopping triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the latest podcast episode of Nordea On Your Mind, Johan Trocmé and Viktor Sonebäck from Nordea Thematics discuss with Adam Schatz , CEO BHG Group , whether changes in consumer behaviour due to the pandemic will be permanent, and how online and brick-and-mortar retailers need to respond. What will be needed to succeed?
We wanted to show you a Spotify but you cannot see it as you have not enabled cookies Click here to update your consent Get the report Top decision makers at Nordea’s large clients across the Nordic region receive Nordea On Your Mind around eight times per year. If you are a corporate client and want to access the full Nordea On Your Mind report, please contact viktor.soneback [at] nordea.com (Viktor Sonebäck) . Share on Facebook Share on Threads Share on Linkedin 30-10-2025 Markets and investment Nordea to offer customers access to an exchange-traded product tracking Bitcoin As the European regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies has matured and the demand for virtual currencies and cryptocurrencies is growing across the Nordics, Nordea has decided to allow customers to trade in a crypto-linked product on its platforms.
Read more 15-09-2025 Markets and investment Nordic cleantech: An infrastructure bonanza for Europe Our analysis of the main public infrastructure programmes in Europe points to a substantial step-up in investment due in 2026, which contrasts with the capital drain we’re seeing for US cleantech. This is driving investors’ sentiment for infrastructure, which, for the first time in years in Q2 2025, was higher in Europe than in the US, topped by the Nordics. Read more 12-09-2025 Corporate insights Sweden’s economic resilience drives new business Despite global uncertainties, Sweden’s robust economic fundamentals pave the way for an increase in corporate transaction activity in the second half of 2025.
Nordea’s view is that interest rates are likely to remain low, and our experts accordingly expect a pickup in deals. Read more Scroll to top
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Related news on this pair
Euro: US payrolls could cap gains against the US Dollar - Commerzbank
Strong US payrolls data expected to limit EUR/USD upside and support USD strength through revised rate expectations.
Gold eyes $4,365, Silver targets $70 as the EUR/USD test key resist, CHF Weaker [Video]
EUR/USD testing key resistance while CHF weakness suggests broad USD strength may be establishing.
Euro: Rebound against US Dollar faces key cloud barrier – UOB
EUR/USD rebound momentum capped by cloud resistance; USD strength persists until euro breaks technical level.