On this page · 5 sections▾
Nineteen firms cover the six EM pairs tracked here; as of July 21, 2026, the cross-pair picture is one of neutral aggregate bias with meaningful dispersion concentrated in Asian FX and, to a lesser degree, the lira. The widest forecast ranges sit in USD/TRY (43.5–56.3) and USD/MXN (17.0–19.2), while the largest spot-versus-consensus dislocations are in USD/INR (+10.92%) and USD/KRW (+7.22%).
Key Numbers
- USD/MXN spot 17.39 vs. median Dec-26 target 17.90; 19-firm range 17.0–19.2
- USD/BRL spot 5.07 vs. median Dec-26 target 5.10; 19-firm range 4.5–5.7
- USD/ZAR spot 16.45 vs. median Dec-26 target 16.175; 18-firm range 15.5–18.0
- USD/TRY spot 47.20 vs. median Dec-26 target 50.25; 18-firm range 43.5–56.3
- USD/INR spot 96.23 vs. median Dec-26 target 86.75; 18-firm range 83.5–96.0; spot gap +10.92%
- USD/KRW spot 1479.68 vs. median Dec-26 target 1380.0; 18-firm range 1280.0–1460.0; spot gap +7.22%
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Deutsche Bank · Morgan Stanley · Société Générale · UBS +16 more
20 firms aggregated · as of 2026-07-21 16:06 UTC
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | StanChart | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Citi | 19.2 | bullish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Commerzbank | 96.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Most Crowded?
USD/BRL is the tightest consensus on the board. Spot at 5.07 sits within 0.50% of the 19-firm median of 5.10, and the range of 4.5–5.7 is narrow relative to the pair's historical vol. ING holds the low end at 4.5 with a neutral stance, while BNP Paribas anchors the high at 5.7 with a bearish view on BRL. The 1.2-figure spread suggests the street broadly agrees that the real is fairly priced near current levels, leaving little room for a contrarian trade on the basis of consensus divergence alone.
USD/ZAR is similarly compressed in spot-versus-median terms: spot 16.45 sits only 1.71% above the median target of 16.175, with Deutsche Bank the most constructive on the rand at 15.5 and Citi the most cautious at 18.0. The 2.5-figure range is modest for a pair that routinely moves that much in a single risk-off session, implying the 18-firm panel is not pricing in a tail scenario in either direction.
Where Is Dispersion Widest — and What Does It Signal?
USD/TRY carries the widest absolute range: 12.8 figures from UBS at 43.5 to ING at 56.3. Spot at 47.20 sits 6.07% below the median of 50.25, meaning the central tendency of the panel expects further lira depreciation from here. UBS's 43.5 target — the most bearish-USD call — implies a meaningful lira recovery that would require sustained disinflation and CBRT credibility gains. ING's 56.3, by contrast, prices in continued erosion. The gap between those two endpoints is large enough to make USD/TRY the pair where desk selection matters most.
USD/INR is the outlier on spot-versus-consensus dislocation. At 96.23, spot sits 10.92% above the 18-firm median of 86.75 — the largest gap in this roundup. Both UBS at 83.5 and Commerzbank at 96.0 are bearish on USD/INR, meaning every named desk in this sample expects the rupee to strengthen or at least hold. That unanimity is notable: if spot is at 96.23 and the panel's ceiling is also 96.0, the consensus is effectively calling a top. USD/KRW tells a similar story — spot at 1479.68 versus a median of 1380.0, with Citi's 1460.0 as the most bullish-USD call still below spot. The street is positioned for won recovery, though the 180-won range (1280–1460) across the panel reflects genuine uncertainty about the pace.
Which Pairs Are Desks Flagging for Carry?
USD/TRY remains the carry pair of record in EM, and the 18-firm panel's median target of 50.25 implies roughly 6.4% of additional USD/TRY appreciation from spot — a headwind to the carry if realised. Desks pushing the carry trade here are implicitly betting that the depreciation path is slower than the median implies, or that the nominal yield differential more than compensates. UBS's 43.5 target would make the carry trade straightforwardly positive in total-return terms; ING's 56.3 would wipe it out.
USD/MXN at a median target of 17.90 versus spot 17.39 implies modest peso depreciation of 2.84% by year-end. With the Banxico overnight rate still elevated, the carry buffer is meaningful, but Citi's 19.2 target represents a scenario where carry is overwhelmed by spot losses. StanChart at 17.0 is the only desk in this sample projecting peso appreciation from current levels, which would make the MXN carry trade positive on both legs.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many firms contribute to this EM FX consensus?
Nineteen firms cover USD/MXN and USD/BRL; eighteen cover USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/INR, and USD/KRW.
Which EM pair has the largest spot-to-consensus gap as of July 21, 2026?
USD/INR, where spot at 96.225 sits 10.92% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 86.75 — the widest dislocation across the six pairs tracked.
Which pair has the tightest consensus?
USD/BRL, with spot within 0.50% of the median target of 5.10 and a 19-firm forecast range of just 4.5–5.7.
Which desk holds the most bullish-USD view across all six pairs?
ING on USD/TRY at 56.3 is the highest absolute target relative to the panel median; Citi holds the most bullish-USD positions in USD/MXN (19.2), USD/ZAR (18.0), and USD/KRW (1460.0).
→ See the full Citi FX outlook at Citi forecasts, or browse the complete EM FX consensus tracker for updated targets across all tracked pairs.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
More from EM FX
- EM FX
EM FX Consensus Map, Dec-2026: Six Pairs, 20 Desks
Across six EM pairs, consensus ranges from near-flat on BRL to a 9.4% spot-vs-median gap on INR, with dispersion widest in TRY and KRW.
- EM FX
EM FX Consensus Check: Where Six Pairs Stand, August 5 2026
Across six tracked EM pairs, consensus skews toward modest USD softening by December 2026, but dispersion is wide and INR stands as the sharpest outlier.
- EM FX
EM FX Consensus Check: Week of August 4, 2026
Cross-EM consensus as of August 4, 2026 shows wide dispersion across six pairs, with USD/INR the most dislocated at spot 9.62% above its Dec-26 median.
Share