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Across the six EM pairs tracked here, the 21-firm panel is split between pairs where spot has already overshot consensus (USD/INR, USD/BRL) and pairs where the dollar still has room to run to median (USD/MXN, USD/TRY). Dispersion is widest in USD/INR and USD/ZAR, tightest in USD/KRW — a pattern that shapes both the carry argument and the risk around it.
Key Numbers
- USD/MXN spot 17.034 vs Dec-26 median 17.90 — spot trades 4.84% below consensus (dollar undervalued vs panel)
- USD/BRL spot 5.192 vs Dec-26 median 5.10 — spot 1.80% above consensus (dollar already ahead of panel)
- USD/ZAR spot 16.167 vs Dec-26 median 16.175 — near-flat, 0.05% gap
- USD/TRY spot 48.246 vs Dec-26 median 50.25 — spot 3.99% below consensus
- USD/INR spot 95.37 vs Dec-26 median 88.25 — spot 8.07% above consensus; widest positive gap in the set
- USD/KRW spot 1375.67 vs Dec-26 median 1380.0 — 0.31% gap; tightest in the set
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Commerzbank · Kotaksecurities · Citi · Goldman Sachs +18 more
22 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-28 21:07 UTC
The table below maps every named forecast to its pair, target, and stance. Stances are expressed in EM FX space: bearish means the desk expects the EM currency to fall against the dollar; bullish means it expects the EM currency to rise.
| Firm | Pair | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | USD/TRY | 43.5 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | USD/KRW | 1280.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | USD/ZAR | 15.5 | bearish |
| UBS | USD/INR | 83.5 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | USD/MXN | 17.0 | bearish |
| ING | USD/BRL | 4.5 | neutral |
| BNP Paribas | USD/BRL | 5.7 | bearish |
| Citi | USD/ZAR | 18.0 | bullish |
| Nomura | USD/MXN | 19.2 | bearish |
| ING | USD/TRY | 56.3 | neutral |
| Commerzbank | USD/INR | 96.0 | bearish |
| Citi | USD/KRW | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Crowded and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/KRW is the most crowded consensus trade in the set. With spot at 1375.67 and the median at 1380.0, the gap is just 0.31% — effectively flat — and the 18-firm panel sits in a 1280–1460 range. Citi anchors the bullish-USD end at 1460, Standard Chartered the bearish-USD end at 1280. That 180-won spread is wide in absolute terms but the median is almost exactly at spot, meaning the panel has no strong directional call — just disagreement about the path.
USD/ZAR is similarly anchored near spot (16.167 vs 16.175 median, 0.05% gap) but with a more polarised panel: Deutsche Bank targets 15.5 and Citi targets 18.0, a 2.5-figure range on an 18-firm panel. That dispersion reflects genuine disagreement about South African fiscal trajectory and commodity-price sensitivity rather than a consensus view dressed up as a range.
USD/INR carries the most actionable signal. Spot at 95.37 sits 8.07% above the Dec-26 median of 88.25 — the largest positive gap in the set, meaning the dollar has already run well past where the 20-firm panel expected it to be by year-end. Commerzbank is the most bullish-USD desk at 96.0, essentially ratifying current spot. UBS sits at the opposite extreme at 83.5, implying a sharp INR recovery. The 12.5-figure range (83.5–96.0) is the widest absolute dispersion in the set and reflects unresolved disagreement about RBI intervention capacity and the pace of any Fed pivot feeding through to EM capital flows.
USD/MXN presents a different dynamic. Spot at 17.034 trades 4.84% below the Dec-26 median of 17.90 — the panel expects the dollar to recover from here. Nomura is the most bullish-USD desk at 19.2; Standard Chartered is the most bearish-USD at 17.0, barely above current spot. Both are bearish on MXN in stance terms, but the distance between them is 2.2 figures on a 19-firm panel — meaningful dispersion for a G20 EM pair.
Which Pairs Are the Desks Pushing on Carry?
Carry is the implicit argument in two pairs. USD/TRY spot at 48.246 sits 3.99% below the Dec-26 median of 50.25, and the panel range runs from UBS at 43.5 to ING at 56.3. Turkish overnight rates remain among the highest in EM, which mechanically supports carry inflows even as the lira depreciates on trend. The 12.8-figure range between UBS and ING signals that desks are not aligned on whether carry can offset depreciation pressure through year-end — UBS's 43.5 target implies meaningful lira appreciation from spot, while ING's 56.3 implies further lira weakness that would erode carry returns in dollar terms.
USD/BRL is the other carry-adjacent pair. Spot at 5.192 sits 1.80% above the Dec-26 median of 5.10, with BNP Paribas at 5.7 (most bullish-USD) and ING at 4.5 (most bearish-USD). Brazil's Selic rate keeps BRL carry attractive in theory, but BNP's 5.7 target — well above current spot — suggests at least one major desk sees fiscal risk outweighing the rate differential by December.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many firms contribute to this EM FX consensus?
The panel comprises 21 firms in aggregate across the six pairs, with individual pair coverage ranging from 18 firms (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 20 firms (USD/INR).
Which pair has the largest gap between spot and consensus?
USD/INR, where spot at 95.37 sits 8.07% above the Dec-26 median of 88.25 — the dollar has already overshot the panel's year-end target by the widest margin in the set.
Which pair has the tightest consensus?
USD/KRW, where spot at 1375.67 is just 0.31% below the Dec-26 median of 1380.0, making it the pair where the panel is most aligned with current market pricing.
Where is intra-panel dispersion widest?
USD/INR carries a 12.5-figure range (83.5–96.0) between UBS and Commerzbank, the widest absolute spread across all six pairs tracked. USD/TRY's 12.8-figure range (43.5–56.3) is comparable in absolute terms.
→ See the full Commerzbank FX outlook for the USD/INR view anchoring the bullish-USD end of the widest dispersion in this consensus set.
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