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EUR/USD trades at 1.1525 as of August 12, 2026 — roughly 0.65% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 consensus target of 1.16, according to the full EUR/USD bank forecast table. The cross-firm range spans 0.14 big figures, reflecting genuine disagreement on the Fed-ECB policy path rather than noise.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 12, 2026): 1.1525
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 30 firms): 1.16
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.14
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −0.65%
- Most bullish: Nordea at 1.24
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.10
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.10 | bearish |
| BofA | 1.12 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.12 | neutral |
| SG | 1.14 | bullish |
| ANZ | 1.14 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 1.14 | neutral |
| TMGM | 1.145 | neutral |
| UOB | 1.1565 | neutral |
| ING | 1.16 | neutral |
| DB | 1.162 | bullish |
| UBS | 1.20 | bullish |
| Nomura | 1.20 | bullish |
| CBK | 1.22 | bullish |
| CIBC | 1.22 | neutral |
Why does EUR/USD trade below the consensus median?
The 0.65% gap between spot and the 1.16 median is modest in absolute terms but directionally meaningful: the tape has not confirmed the bullish lean embedded in the 30-firm panel. Three macro drivers explain why consensus sits above spot.
Front-end rate spreads. The 2-year EUR/USD rate differential has compressed through 2026 as the Fed moved later and slower than the ECB on easing. CBK, targeting 1.22, anchors its call on a continued narrowing of that spread — arguing that residual Fed restrictiveness will erode dollar carry appeal into year-end. The desk sees EUR roughly 5.6% stronger than current spot by December.
ECB terminal-rate dispersion. UBS, at 1.20, frames its bullish view around a higher ECB terminal rate than markets currently price. If the ECB pauses cuts earlier than the swaps curve implies, the euro's yield support extends. That repricing is the swing factor the 1.20 camp is positioned for.
Bearish outlier: the Citi case. Citi sits at the bottom of the distribution at 1.10 — 14 big figures below Nordea and 2.5 below the median. The desk's bearish stance rests on a view that euro-area growth underperforms expectations, forcing the ECB back into an easing posture that consensus is not pricing. At 1.10, Citi implies EUR roughly 3.8% below current spot levels, making it the clearest expression of downside risk in the panel.
Which desks are the outliers, and what would close the gap?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: HSBC · Citi · Danskebank · Goldman Sachs +26 more
30 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-12 21:07 UTC
The 0.14 dispersion figure — the widest in recent quarters — reflects genuine disagreement rather than stale updates. Nordea's 1.24 top target and Citi's 1.10 floor define a range that is nearly three times the spot-to-consensus gap. The bulk of the panel clusters between 1.14 and 1.22, with ING and DB sitting closest to the 1.16 median — ING recently raised its target from 1.15 to 1.16, a marginal upward revision consistent with a neutral stance.
BofA occupies an unusual position: a bullish stance paired with a 1.12 target that sits below spot. That configuration — directionally constructive on EUR but with a year-end level implying depreciation from here — reflects a desk that turned less negative on the dollar without fully committing to EUR upside. It is the kind of internally complex view that tends to get revised as Q4 data clarifies the Fed's December posture.
For consensus to converge toward spot at 1.1525, one of two things would have to break. First, the Fed could signal a materially slower easing pace than the panel assumes — pushing front-end USD yields higher and compressing the rate-spread argument that underpins the 1.18–1.24 camp. Second, euro-area activity data would need to deteriorate enough to force ECB cut expectations back into the curve, validating the Citi and BofA lower-target scenarios. Absent either catalyst, the structural bias in the panel remains bullish, and spot trading below median consensus is more likely to resolve upward than downward — though the 0.14 dispersion range signals the market is not offering that view cheaply.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current EUR/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 30 firms is 1.16, as of August 12, 2026. Live spot at 1.1525 sits 0.65% below that level.
Which bank has the most bullish EUR/USD target?
Nordea holds the top target in the 30-firm panel at 1.24 for December 2026. The most bearish published target belongs to Citi at 1.10.
How wide is the disagreement across EUR/USD forecasters?
Dispersion — measured as the max minus min target across all 30 firms — stands at 0.14, reflecting a meaningful spread of views on the Fed-ECB divergence trade.
Has the ING EUR/USD forecast changed recently?
ING raised its Dec-26 target from 1.15 to 1.16, now sitting exactly at the 30-firm median with a neutral stance.
→ See the full CBK FX outlook for the complete Commerzbank EUR/USD rationale and updated targets across G10.
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