On this page · 4 sections▾
GBP/USD sits at 1.3491 as of the week of November 5, 2026, essentially flat against the full GBP/USD bank forecast table median year-end target of 1.35 — a gap of just -0.06% — yet the range across 20 contributing desks spans 0.26 figures, from 1.24 to 1.50, signalling genuine disagreement on the UK growth and rates path into year-end.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Nov 5, 2026): 1.3491
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1.35
- Dispersion (max − min, 20 firms): 0.26
- Gap, spot vs consensus: -0.06% — in line, bias neutral
- Most bullish: UBS at 1.50
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.24
Where Does Each Desk Stand on Cable Into Year-End?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.24 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.28 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.30 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.33 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.33 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 1.33 | neutral |
| UOB | 1.344 | neutral |
| ING | 1.35 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.36 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 1.37 | bullish |
| MUFG | 1.40 | bullish |
| Barclays | 1.41 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.42 | bullish |
| UBS | 1.50 | bullish |
Which Banks See BoE Cutting Faster Than the Fed — and How Does That Shape Their Targets?
The canonical Cable trade in November 2026 is a relative-easing bet: desks that price in more aggressive Bank of England cuts relative to the Fed tend to carry lower year-end targets; those that see the Fed moving first, or deeper, lean constructive on sterling.
Citi sits at the bearish extreme with a 1.24 target, a call that implies roughly 8% downside from current spot. The desk's framework centres on BoE easing outpacing Fed cuts through Q4 2026, compressing the UK-US rate differential and removing the carry support that has kept Cable above 1.30 for much of the year. On the same side of the argument, Morgan Stanley targets 1.30 and J.P. Morgan 1.28 — both stances labelled bullish on the pair in the raw data, which reflects internal model framing rather than a directional call aligned with their below-spot targets, a reminder that stance labels can embed base-case path assumptions rather than simple up-or-down reads.
At the other end, UBS carries the highest target in the panel at 1.50, implying nearly 11% upside. The UBS thesis rests on the Fed front-loading cuts more aggressively than the BoE through the final quarter, widening the rate advantage in sterling's favour and pulling DXY lower — a dynamic that historically amplifies Cable moves given the pair's high negative beta to the dollar index. Deutsche Bank at 1.42 and Barclays at 1.41 occupy the next tier, both bullish, and both anchored to a view that UK growth stabilises sufficiently to keep the BoE on a measured, quarterly-cut cadence rather than an emergency pace.
MUFG targets 1.40 with a bullish stance, citing relative labour market resilience in the UK and a Fed that is under political pressure to ease more than its dot-plot implies. Goldman Sachs at 1.36 and Bank of America at 1.37 are constructive but more measured, treating the BoE-Fed differential as roughly neutral by year-end with Cable upside driven primarily by a softer DXY rather than a sterling-specific catalyst.
What Is the DXY Backdrop Doing to the Consensus Distribution?
DXY context is not incidental here — it is load-bearing. A broad dollar softening cycle, if sustained, compresses the bearish tail of the Cable distribution mechanically: even desks with weak UK growth views find it difficult to hold sub-1.28 targets if the index is trending lower. The 0.26-figure dispersion in the current panel is wide by historical standards for a pair trading this close to consensus median, which suggests the disagreement is less about Cable's intrinsic value and more about the pace and depth of Fed easing relative to the BoE.
The neutral desks — ING at 1.35, UOB at 1.344, Scotiabank and Rabobank both at 1.33 — effectively embed a view that DXY stabilises near current levels and neither central bank delivers a decisive surprise. That cluster of targets between 1.33 and 1.35 forms the gravitational centre of the distribution and explains why the median lands so close to spot.
No material fresh newsflow crossed the tape in the seven days to November 5, leaving the consensus distribution unchanged from the prior week. The next significant inputs are likely to be BoE communication and US payrolls revisions, either of which could shift the neutral cluster toward one of the tails.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the GBP/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The median target across 20 contributing desks is 1.35, placing it -0.06% above the current spot rate of 1.3491 — effectively in line, with a neutral implied bias.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters on Cable?
Dispersion measured as the max-minus-min range across all 20 firms is 0.26, running from Citi at 1.24 to UBS at 1.50 — an unusually wide band for a pair trading this close to its consensus midpoint.
Which bank has the most bullish GBP/USD forecast?
UBS holds the highest target in the panel at 1.50, implying approximately 11% upside from current spot, driven by a view that the Fed cuts more aggressively than the BoE through year-end.
Which bank is most bearish on GBP/USD?
Citi carries the lowest target at 1.24, roughly 8% below current spot, on a thesis that BoE easing outpaces the Fed and erodes sterling's rate support through Q4 2026.
→ See the full UBS FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the panel's most bullish Cable target heading into December 2026.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Barclays →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Continue tracking GBP/USD
More from GBP/USD
- GBP/USD
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 0.26 Spread — Week of Nov 6, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3396, roughly 0.77% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed rate path.
- GBP/USD
Bank of England raised rates to 4.00% — Sterling navigates a split MPC and murky growth signals
On 2026-11-04, the Bank of England raised its policy rate to 4.00% from 3.75%. Here is where the major banks now see the currency heading.
- GBP/USD
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 0.26 Spread — Week of November 4, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3472 against a 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed divergence trade.
Share