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USD/TRY trades at 48.4425, roughly 3.6% below the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25 — see the full USD/TRY bank forecast table for the complete picture across all 18 contributing desks. With the Central Bank of Turkiye (TCMB) scheduled to announce its rate decision on September 10, 2026 at 11:00 UTC, the calendar consensus estimate sits at 37% — matching the current policy rate — leaving a hold as the base case but with meaningful tail scenarios on both sides.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 48.4425
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Gap vs spot: –3.60% (spot trades well below consensus — implied bias is bullish USD/TRY)
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points
- Most bullish on USD/TRY: ING at 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY: UBS at 43.50
Bank Forecast Table
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Where Does the Street Stand Ahead of September 10?
The calendar consensus estimate of 37% matches the current TCMB policy rate, making an outright hold the modal expectation across desks. Of the 14 most recently updated firms in the table, 12 carry a bearish stance on USD/TRY — meaning those desks expect the lira to weaken from current spot levels by year-end. Only Citi registers as bullish on the pair (target 49.50, implying modest further TRY depreciation from spot), while ING sits neutral with the most aggressive year-end level in the consensus at 56.30.
The positioning split matters for interpreting the rate decision. Desks with bearish USD/TRY targets clustered between 49.50 and 53.50 — the broad middle of the distribution — are implicitly pricing a path where the TCMB holds rates steady or signals a cautious easing trajectory that keeps real rates positive enough to sustain some lira demand. A surprise cut, or language that accelerates the expected easing timeline, would challenge that middle-of-the-road positioning most acutely. The outliers at either end — UBS at 43.50 and ING at 56.30 — reflect genuinely divergent macro assumptions that a single rate decision is unlikely to resolve.
What Does the Reaction Map Look Like for USD/TRY?
Three scenarios bracket the post-decision tape:
Hold at 37% (base case per calendar consensus). Spot at 48.44 would likely remain anchored near current levels in the near term. The consensus median of 50.25 implies roughly 3.7 points of depreciation still priced in by December, so a hold that reinforces the TCMB's commitment to disinflation would be broadly consistent with the majority of published targets. Desks with targets in the 49.50–52.00 range — Citi, Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, MUFG, Morgan Stanley — would see their year-end paths remain intact.
Cut. Any reduction from 37% would likely accelerate TRY depreciation pressure, pushing spot toward the upper end of the consensus range. ING's 56.30 target and J.P. Morgan's 53.50 would become the more relevant reference points. The 12.80-point dispersion across the full 18-firm panel means a cut-driven repricing could bring ING's target into play while leaving UBS's 43.50 stranded as an outlier.
Hike. A surprise tightening would be lira-supportive in the short run, compressing USD/TRY toward the lower end of the distribution. UBS at 43.50 and HSBC at 44.50 would be the targets most consistent with a hawkish surprise, though both desks carry bearish stances on the pair, suggesting those levels reflect structural lira weakness assumptions rather than a policy shock scenario.
The asymmetry in the distribution — 12 of 14 reported desks bearish on USD/TRY, median 50.25, spot at 48.44 — suggests the street's base case already embeds some degree of ongoing lira softness regardless of the September 10 outcome. The decision's signalling value for the easing cycle trajectory matters more than the rate level itself.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate going into the TCMB decision?
Spot is 48.4425 as of the latest print, approximately 3.60% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 50.25.
What is the cross-firm consensus target for USD/TRY by December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 contributing firms is 50.25, with a dispersion of 12.80 points between the most and least bullish desks.
Which firm has the highest USD/TRY target and which has the lowest?
ING holds the top target at 56.30; UBS holds the bottom at 43.50 — a spread of 12.80 points across the full panel.
Does the street expect a rate change on September 10?
The calendar consensus estimate is 37%, matching the current policy rate, making a hold the modal expectation; the scenarios above map what a cut or hike would mean for the pair relative to published targets.
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→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most aggressive USD/TRY year-end target in the consensus at 56.30.
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