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USD/KRW sits at 1472.58 as of the week of July 21, 2026, while the 18-firm full USD/KRW bank forecast table places the Dec-26 median at 1380 — a 6.71% discount to spot — with a max-to-min dispersion of 180 points that reflects genuine disagreement over the pace of won recovery.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 1472.58
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180 points
- Gap vs spot: −6.71% (spot well above consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW (highest target): Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW (lowest target): StanChart at 1280.0
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does USD/KRW Trade So Far Above the Dec-26 Consensus?
Thirteen of the fourteen desks with published targets sit below current spot, and the aggregate median implies a 6.71% won appreciation by year-end. The structural case rests on three interlocking drivers.
BoK vs Fed divergence. The Bank of Korea has maintained a cautious easing bias through mid-2026, constrained by household debt and a currency that has already depreciated materially. The Fed, meanwhile, has been slower to cut than markets priced at the start of the year. That rate-differential compression — narrowing but not yet resolved — keeps the won under pressure in the near term. Most desks model the BoK beginning a more decisive easing sequence only once the Fed has moved first, a sequencing that argues for won strength in H2 but not yet.
Semiconductor and tech export cycle. Korea's current-account surplus is heavily tied to memory and logic chip exports, and the AI-driven demand cycle has kept export values elevated in 2026. A strong export book is a structural won positive, but the transmission to spot has been muted by corporate hedging flows and repatriation timing. Desks that weight the export cycle most heavily — Goldman Sachs at 1380 and MUFG at 1385 — sit near the consensus median, treating chip revenues as a floor for won recovery rather than a near-term catalyst.
China beta. The won remains one of the highest-beta proxies for Chinese growth sentiment in G10-adjacent EM. Residual uncertainty around Chinese domestic demand and property sector stabilisation has kept risk appetite in the region capped, suppressing the won's natural recovery path. Desks with more constructive China views tend to carry more aggressive won-appreciation targets.
Which Desks Are the Outliers, and What Regime Do They Price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-07-21 06:08 UTC
The 180-point dispersion between StanChart (1280) and Citi (1460) is the widest spread in the current consensus and reflects two materially different macro regimes.
StanChart at 1280 prices an aggressive normalisation scenario: Fed cuts delivered on schedule, BoK on hold or hiking marginally, China stabilisation lifting regional risk appetite, and semiconductor export volumes sustaining the current-account surplus. That combination would imply a won gain of roughly 13% from current spot — an outlier call that requires multiple tailwinds to materialise simultaneously.
Citi at 1460 is the sole bullish desk on the pair and sits only 12.58 points below current spot. Citi's regime prices persistent Fed stickiness, a BoK that moves earlier and deeper than peers expect, and China-related risk-off episodes that periodically spike USD/KRW. On this view, the pair ends the year near current levels rather than compressing toward the consensus median.
ING occupies the neutral position at 1425 — acknowledging won-positive fundamentals but assigning a higher probability weight to near-term dollar resilience and regional volatility. J.P. Morgan at 1440 is bearish on the pair but carries the second-highest target among bearish desks, implying a more gradual convergence path than the median.
The cluster between 1350 and 1390 — where Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Goldman, Commerzbank, MUFG, and Société Générale all sit — represents the consensus core. These desks share a broadly similar macro narrative: Fed cuts beginning in Q3 2026, BoK following with a lag, and chip export revenues sustaining Korea's external balance through year-end.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of July 21, 2026, USD/KRW trades at 1472.58.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The 18-firm median Dec-26 target is 1380.0, implying a 6.71% decline in the pair — equivalent to won appreciation — from current spot.
How wide is the disagreement across forecasting desks?
Dispersion from the lowest to highest published Dec-26 target spans 180 points, from StanChart at 1280 to Citi at 1460 — the widest spread in the current consensus panel.
Which desk is most bullish on USD/KRW and which is most bearish?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460 (bullish on the pair) and is the only desk positioned for the won to weaken further from spot. StanChart holds the lowest target at 1280, implying the most aggressive won recovery of any desk in the 18-firm panel.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the sole bullish USD/KRW call in the current consensus.
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