On this page · 3 sections▾
USD/KRW trades at 1479.5 as of the week of July 22, 2026 — 7.21% above the cross-firm median year-end target of 1380, according to the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Eighteen desks are in the consensus; dispersion between the most and least aggressive targets spans 180 points, signalling meaningful disagreement on the pace and durability of any KRW recovery.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (July 22, 2026): 1479.5
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −7.21% (spot well above consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| BofA | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade so far above the consensus target?
The 7.21% gap between spot and the median Dec-26 target reflects a combination of macro headwinds that the consensus expects to fade rather than persist. The dominant framework across bearish desks rests on three pillars: a Fed easing cycle that narrows the rate differential that has kept the won under pressure; a semiconductor and advanced-packaging export cycle that is expected to re-accelerate through H2 2026 as global AI-related capex commitments translate into shipment volumes; and a partial stabilisation in China demand that reduces the negative China beta the won has absorbed since 2023.
On the monetary policy axis, the Fed-BoK spread remains the proximate driver of carry-related KRW weakness. The Bank of Korea has been cautious — domestic household debt and property-market fragility have constrained its ability to cut aggressively — but most desks price at least one additional BoK cut by year-end alongside a more material Fed easing sequence. That convergence, if it materialises, compresses the rate differential and removes a structural headwind for the won. Goldman Sachs and MUFG both anchor their 1380–1385 targets on this rate-path normalisation thesis.
The semiconductor cycle adds a current-account dimension. Korea's trade surplus is highly sensitive to DRAM and NAND pricing, and to HBM (high-bandwidth memory) shipment schedules tied to AI accelerator demand. A sustained upturn in chip prices and export values would mechanically improve Korea's current-account surplus, providing a fundamental bid for the won that is independent of rate differentials. Desks with more aggressive KRW appreciation targets — HSBC at 1320 and UBS at 1300 — appear to price a stronger and earlier export-cycle recovery than the median.
Where is dispersion widest, and what regime does each tail price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-07-22 06:06 UTC
At 180 points, the spread between Citi at 1460 and StanChart at 1280 is substantial relative to the pair's historical volatility range. The two tails are effectively pricing different macro regimes.
Citi's 1460 target — the only outright bullish stance in the table — implies that current spot levels are broadly fair or only modestly elevated. The desk appears to weight the risk that the Fed easing cycle is shallower or later than priced, that China's recovery remains anaemic and continues to weigh on Korean export momentum, and that domestic political uncertainty in Korea (following the constitutional disruption of late 2024) keeps a risk premium embedded in the won. At 1460, Citi is not calling for KRW depreciation from here so much as arguing the pair stays range-bound near current levels through year-end.
StanChart at 1280 sits at the opposite extreme, pricing a scenario in which the Fed cuts materially, the semiconductor upcycle delivers above-consensus export revenues, and China stabilises enough to reduce the won's negative beta to CNY. That target implies roughly 13.5% KRW appreciation from current spot — an aggressive call that requires several tailwinds to align simultaneously.
ING occupies the only neutral slot at 1425, a position that reflects a more cautious read on the BoK's willingness to allow rapid KRW appreciation given export competitiveness concerns, and a view that global risk appetite may not provide the sustained EM bid needed to push the won significantly stronger.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 and RBC at 1430 cluster near the bearish end of the range but well above the median, suggesting those desks see the convergence trade playing out more slowly — consistent with a view that China beta and domestic political risk keep a floor under USD/KRW for longer than the consensus median implies.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate?
As of the week of July 22, 2026, USD/KRW trades at 1479.5.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 forecasting desks is 1380.0, implying KRW appreciation of approximately 7.21% from current spot levels if consensus proves correct.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target and which has the lowest?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460.0 (bullish on USD/KRW); StanChart holds the lowest at 1280.0 (bearish on USD/KRW). The gap between them is 180 points.
How many banks are in the USD/KRW consensus?
Eighteen firms contribute to the consensus as of this edition; 14 of the most recently updated desks are shown in the table above.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the desk's complete rationale on why USD/KRW remains near current levels through year-end — the sole bullish hold in an otherwise heavily bearish 18-firm consensus.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
RBC →
Bank Forecast
Stanchart →
Continue tracking USD/KRW
More from USD/KRW
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: 1374 Spot, 1380 Target — Week of September 1, 2026
Spot USD/KRW at 1374.02 sits just 0.43% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 1380, masking a 180-point dispersion between Citi and StanChart.
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: 1380 Target, 180-Point Spread — Week of August 31, 2026
Spot USD/KRW at 1367.65 sits 0.89% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion signalling deep regime disagreement.
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: 1380 Target, 180-Point Spread — Week of August 30, 2026
Spot USD/KRW at 1375.67 sits just 0.31% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 1380, masking a 180-point dispersion that reflects sharply divergent BoK/Fed and China beta calls.
Share