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USD/KRW opened the week of August 1, 2026 at 1436.6, sitting 4.1% above the cross-firm median December-2026 target of 1380 — a gap that reflects persistent won weakness against a consensus that remains firmly bearish on the pair; see the full USD/KRW bank forecast table for the complete picture. Across 18 contributing desks, the dispersion between the most and least constructive targets spans 180 points, signalling meaningful regime disagreement rather than a simple timing gap.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 1, 2026): 1436.6
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 1380.0
- Gap — spot vs consensus: 4.1% above consensus
- Dispersion (max − min, 18 firms): 180 points
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0 (expects pair to rise)
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0 (expects pair to fall)
Which Banks Are the Outliers on USD/KRW?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-01 11:06 UTC
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
The distribution is skewed: twelve of the fourteen published desks cluster between 1350 and 1440, but the tails carry real weight. UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 are pricing an aggressive KRW recovery — roughly 9–10% from current spot — that requires both a decisive Fed pivot and a durable re-acceleration in Korean semiconductor export revenues. At the other end, Citi is the sole explicitly bullish desk on USD/KRW, targeting 1460, which is only 23 points above current spot and implies the pair stays range-bound or drifts marginally higher. J.P. Morgan at 1440 is technically bearish on the pair but its target sits above spot, reflecting a view that the won's recovery will be shallow and back-loaded. The 180-point spread between the top and bottom published targets is among the widest for any major EM Asia pair tracked in this consensus cycle.
Why Does USD/KRW Trade So Far Above the Median Target?
Three structural forces explain the persistence of the spot-to-consensus gap.
BoK versus Fed divergence. The Bank of Korea has been navigating a domestic growth slowdown alongside household debt concerns, limiting its capacity to hold rates at levels that would attract carry flows into KRW. The Federal Reserve, even if on a gradual easing path, has kept real rates elevated enough to sustain dollar demand. The majority of bearish desks — Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Bank of America — are pricing a scenario in which Fed cuts accelerate in H2 2026, compressing the rate differential that has kept the pair elevated. If that easing materialises more slowly than priced, the 4.1% gap between spot and the 1380 median will not close by year-end.
Semiconductor and tech export cycle. Korea's current account is disproportionately sensitive to the global memory and logic chip cycle. A recovery in DRAM and NAND pricing would mechanically improve Korea's trade surplus and provide a fundamental bid for KRW. The desks with the most aggressive KRW-recovery targets — UBS, HSBC, Deutsche Bank at 1350 — appear to embed a more optimistic read on the semiconductor upcycle than the consensus median. ING, the lone neutral desk at 1425, appears less convinced that export revenues will translate quickly into currency appreciation given ongoing inventory normalisation at major end-demand customers.
China beta. KRW carries one of the highest China-growth betas among G20 currencies. Subdued Chinese domestic demand and continued pressure on Korean intermediate-goods exports to China have been a consistent headwind. Desks that are more constructive on a Chinese stimulus impulse in H2 2026 tend to sit at the lower end of the USD/KRW target range. Those sceptical of a durable Chinese recovery — or concerned about tariff-related trade disruption — cluster toward the 1420–1460 zone.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of August 1, 2026, USD/KRW trades at 1436.6, approximately 4.1% above the 18-firm cross-desk median December-2026 target of 1380.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast for end-2026?
Citi holds the top target at 1460, the only desk with an explicitly bullish stance on the pair, implying a modest further rise from current spot.
Which bank expects the most KRW appreciation by year-end?
StanChart carries the lowest published target at 1280 — a level not captured in the fourteen-desk detail table but included in the 18-firm snapshot — implying roughly 10.9% downside in USD/KRW from current levels.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
The dispersion between the highest and lowest December-2026 targets across all 18 contributing firms is 180 points, reflecting substantive disagreement over the pace of Fed easing, the semiconductor export recovery, and China demand conditions rather than minor timing differences.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the rationale behind the consensus's most bullish USD/KRW target heading into year-end.
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