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USD/KRW spot sits at 1427.48 as of the week of August 3, 2026 — 3.44% above the 18-firm cross-bank Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, with a 180-point spread between the most and least constructive desks; the full USD/KRW bank forecast table captures the complete distribution.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 3, 2026): 1427.48
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −3.44% (spot trades well above median target)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0 (pair rises from here)
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0 (pair falls ~10.3% from spot)
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does USD/KRW Trade Well Above the Dec-26 Consensus?
The 3.44% gap between spot and the 1380 median reflects a policy and macro configuration that has not yet shifted in the direction most desks anticipated when they set year-end targets. The Bank of Korea has moved cautiously relative to the Fed's easing cadence: until the Fed's rate path compresses the differential meaningfully, the carry argument for KRW appreciation remains constrained. Most bearish desks embed two to three Fed cuts before year-end as the primary catalyst for KRW recovery — that repricing has not fully materialized in the forwards.
Semiconductor exports remain the structural anchor for KRW. Samsung and SK Hynix order books feed directly into Korea's current account, and any softening in the global AI-driven memory cycle would delay the trade-surplus widening that bearish desks rely on to justify sub-1380 targets. The cycle has been supportive in aggregate, but the pace of export revenue conversion has been uneven quarter to quarter, leaving the current account less of a near-term catalyst than consensus models assumed.
China beta compounds the picture. KRW carries one of the highest sensitivities to CNY and Chinese demand among G10-adjacent currencies. With Chinese domestic demand still grinding through a subdued recovery, the risk-on impulse that would typically compress USD/KRW has been muted. Desks with the most aggressive KRW-bullish targets — UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 — embed a more constructive China re-acceleration scenario than the base case currently warrants.
Where Is Dispersion Widest, and What Does It Signal?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-03 11:06 UTC
At 180 points, the max-to-min spread is unusually wide for a single currency pair over a five-month horizon. The gap between Citi at 1460 and StanChart at 1280 is not simply a matter of Fed timing assumptions — it reflects fundamentally different regime calls.
Citi is the sole bullish outlier among the 14 named desks, pricing a scenario in which the Fed holds longer than the market prices, the BoK is forced to cut ahead of the Fed to support domestic growth, and the resulting rate differential keeps USD/KRW elevated or drifting higher. That is a coherent macro narrative, but it is a minority view.
The cluster of desks between 1370 and 1390 — Nomura, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, and MUFG — represents the modal view: orderly Fed easing, stable semiconductor demand, and a gradual KRW recovery that stops well short of the pre-2024 range. J.P. Morgan at 1440 sits bearish on USD/KRW but with a target still above spot, implying limited downside for the pair through year-end even on their base case.
ING at 1425 with a neutral stance is effectively calling the pair range-bound from current levels — the most tactically honest read given the absence of a clear near-term catalyst.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of August 3, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1427.48.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 contributing desks is 1380.0, implying a 3.44% decline in the pair from current spot — a bearish consensus bias.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters?
Dispersion across all 18 firms spans 180 points, from StanChart's 1280 floor to Citi's 1460 ceiling — an unusually large range that reflects genuine regime disagreement rather than timing differences alone.
Which desk is most bullish on USD/KRW and which is most bearish?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460, the only named desk with a bullish USD/KRW stance; StanChart holds the lowest at 1280, implying roughly 10% downside for the pair from current levels.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1460 year-end target and the minority bullish USD/KRW case.
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