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USD/KRW sits at 1412.78 as of the week of August 11, 2026 — 2.38% above the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, according to the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Eighteen desks are in the consensus, and the gap between the most bullish and most bearish year-end call spans 180 points — unusually wide for a G20 EM pair at this stage of the forecast cycle.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 11, 2026): 1412.78
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −2.38% (spot well above median target)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0 (not in the 14-firm table below; included in the 18-firm snapshot)
Where the 14 Most-Updated Desks Stand
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does USD/KRW Trade Above the Consensus Target?
The dominant macro frame is a BoK-Fed policy gap that has yet to close at the pace the median forecast implies. The Bank of Korea has moved cautiously on rate normalisation — constrained by a domestic credit cycle that remains sensitive to mortgage costs — while the Fed's easing path has been slower to materialise than desks priced in earlier in 2026. That combination keeps the carry differential narrower than models built around an aggressive Fed pivot would suggest, leaving the won without the rate-support tailwind that underpins most of the bearish USD/KRW targets in the table above.
Semiconductor exports are the second variable. Korea's tech cycle is closely tied to global memory and logic demand, and any softness in end-demand from hyperscaler capex or consumer electronics feeds directly into the current account surplus — the structural anchor for KRW strength. A thinner surplus reduces the natural selling pressure on USD/KRW that would otherwise pull spot toward the median. Desks with the most aggressive bearish targets, such as UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320, are implicitly pricing a robust second-half tech export recovery that would rebuild that surplus buffer.
China beta adds a third layer. KRW is one of the highest-beta proxies to Chinese growth in Asia FX, and any deterioration in Chinese domestic demand or a renewed CNY depreciation episode tends to widen USD/KRW faster than fundamentals alone would justify. The current spot level above 1412 reflects at least a partial China-risk premium that the median target of 1380 does not fully embed.
Where Is the Dispersion Widest, and What Does It Signal?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-11 11:04 UTC
At 180 points, the max-to-min spread is the sharpest signal in this consensus. Citi sits alone at the top of the distribution at 1460, a bullish USD/KRW call that prices continued won underperformance — consistent with a view that the BoK cuts ahead of the Fed and that China beta remains a drag. At the other end, StanChart's 1280 target (included in the 18-firm snapshot but not among the 14 most recently updated desks) prices an aggressive won recovery, likely contingent on a sharp Fed easing cycle and a semiconductor upcycle that restores Korea's current account surplus to cycle highs.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 and RBC Capital Markets at 1430 occupy the upper tier of the distribution while still carrying a bearish USD/KRW stance — meaning both desks see the pair falling from current spot but expect the move to be modest and the won to remain under pressure relative to the consensus midpoint. ING at 1425 is the only neutral read in the table, reflecting a view that the pair is close to fair value at current levels and that the directional case is not yet established.
The clustering of nine desks between 1350 and 1395 — Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, MUFG, Société Générale, Morgan Stanley — reflects a shared base case: moderate Fed easing in H2 2026, a stable-to-recovering Korean tech export cycle, and no severe China shock. That cluster is where the consensus is most vulnerable to revision if any of those three assumptions breaks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of August 11, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1412.78.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 forecasting desks is 1380.0, implying the pair is currently trading 2.38% above consensus.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target and which has the lowest?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460.0; StanChart holds the lowest at 1280.0 — a spread of 180 points across the 18-firm panel.
How many banks are bearish on USD/KRW into year-end?
Of the 14 most recently updated desks, 12 carry a bearish USD/KRW stance, one (ING) is neutral, and one (Citi) is bullish; the implied consensus bias across all 18 firms is bearish.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the most bullish USD/KRW call in the current consensus.
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