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USD/KRW spot sits at 1416.97 as of the week of August 12, 2026 — 2.68% above the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, according to the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Eighteen desks are in the panel, and the gap between the most bullish and most bearish year-end call spans 180 points, a spread wide enough to reflect genuine disagreement over the macro regime rather than mere rounding differences.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 12, 2026): 1416.97
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −2.68% (spot well above consensus)
- Most bullish desk: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish desk: StanChart at 1280.0
Where Do the 18 Desks Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Is USD/KRW Trading Above the Consensus Target?
The 2.68% premium spot holds over the Dec-26 median reflects a confluence of three structural overhangs that the consensus has not yet fully resolved.
First, the BoK–Fed rate differential remains a headwind for the won. The Bank of Korea has moved cautiously on easing, constrained by household debt dynamics and residual inflation stickiness in services. The Fed, meanwhile, has not delivered the pace of cuts that would materially compress the differential. Until that gap narrows in a sustained way, carry-sensitive flows continue to favour the dollar side of the pair.
Second, the semiconductor export cycle — South Korea's primary current-account engine — has improved on a volume basis but pricing has been uneven across memory segments. DRAM contract prices have recovered, yet NAND remains under pressure from oversupply built during the 2024–25 capex cycle. A clean, broad-based upcycle in chip pricing would be the single most direct catalyst for KRW appreciation, as it would simultaneously boost the current account and attract equity inflows into Korean tech names. That catalyst has not arrived with enough conviction to move the pair below 1400.
Third, China beta continues to weigh. The KRW is one of the highest-beta EM currencies to Chinese growth expectations, and the Chinese recovery has remained uneven through mid-2026. Any deterioration in Chinese domestic demand or a renewed escalation in trade frictions between Beijing and Washington feeds directly into Korean export order books and, by extension, KRW sentiment.
Where Is the Dispersion Widest, and What Does It Signal?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-12 21:04 UTC
The 180-point range between Citi at 1460 and StanChart at 1280 is the most instructive feature of this consensus snapshot. That spread is not noise — it maps onto two distinct macro regimes.
Citi sits at the bullish extreme (USD/KRW higher), pricing a scenario in which Fed cuts remain shallow, China's recovery disappoints, and the semiconductor upcycle stalls. At 1460, Citi's target is actually above current spot, implying further won weakness from here.
UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 anchor the bearish end of the distribution. Both desks appear to be pricing a more aggressive Fed easing path, a durable recovery in Korean tech exports, and a stabilisation of Chinese demand sufficient to reduce the KRW's China-risk discount. The gap between UBS's 1300 target and spot is roughly 8.2% — a substantial call that requires several macro dominoes to fall in sequence.
The cluster of desks between 1350 and 1395 — Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Nomura, Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, MUFG, and Société Générale — represents the modal view: moderate won recovery by year-end, contingent on incremental Fed easing and a steady rather than spectacular chip cycle. ING at 1425 with a neutral stance is the outlier within this middle band, effectively calling for the pair to stay close to current levels.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 with a bearish stance is a notable positioning: the target is above spot, yet the desk is classified bearish on USD/KRW, suggesting the house view anticipates eventual won recovery but not within the Dec-26 horizon at a pace that brings the pair below current levels.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate?
As of the week of August 12, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1416.97.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 forecasting desks is 1380.0, implying a 2.68% decline in USD/KRW — i.e., modest won appreciation — from current spot.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast?
Citi holds the highest Dec-26 target at 1460.0, a bullish stance on USD/KRW that prices further won weakness from current levels.
How wide is the disagreement across forecasters?
Dispersion between the most bullish and most bearish Dec-26 targets is 180 points — the widest spread in the panel — reflecting unresolved disagreement over the Fed–BoK differential, the semiconductor cycle, and China's growth trajectory.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook for the complete set of USD/KRW scenario analysis and rate path assumptions underlying the 1380 year-end target.
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