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USD/KRW spot sits at 1417.39 as of the week of August 13, 2026 — 2.71% above the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, per the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Across 18 contributing desks, the spread between the most bullish and most bearish year-end call spans 180 points, reflecting genuine disagreement over the BoK/Fed divergence path and Korea's export cycle.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 13, 2026): 1417.39
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Gap vs spot: −2.71% (spot trades well above consensus)
- Dispersion (max − min): 180 points
- Most bullish desk: Citi at 1460.0 (USD/KRW higher)
- Most bearish desk: StanChart at 1280.0 (USD/KRW lower)
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does USD/KRW Trade Above the Consensus Median?
The 2.71% gap between spot and the Dec-26 median is not noise. The dominant narrative across bearish desks — Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and the bulk of the 18-firm panel — rests on three convergent forces: a Fed easing cycle that narrows the rate differential supporting the dollar, a Korean semiconductor export cycle that has historically correlated with KRW strength, and residual China beta that has been a persistent drag on the won but is priced to partially unwind.
The BoK's own policy path is the swing variable. If the Bank of Korea cuts ahead of, or in tandem with, the Fed, the rate-differential argument for KRW appreciation weakens materially. Several desks have flagged this risk explicitly: domestic growth softness and a property sector that remains under pressure give the BoK cover to ease, which would compress the spread compression thesis that underpins targets in the 1300–1370 range. UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 are the most aggressive in pricing a clean Fed-leads-BoK scenario; both targets require spot to fall roughly 8–11% from current levels, a move that would need either a sharp acceleration in Fed cuts or a significant re-rating of Korean tech export momentum.
The current spot premium to consensus likely reflects two things: residual risk-off positioning tied to China demand uncertainty, and the market's skepticism that the semiconductor upcycle translates into FX flows as cleanly as the models assume. Korean chip exporters have historically repatriated earnings unevenly, and hedging ratios in the sector remain elevated.
Where Is the Dispersion Widest, and What Regime Does Each Tail Price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-13 16:06 UTC
At 180 points, the max-to-min spread is the defining feature of this consensus snapshot. Citi at 1460 sits 80 points above the median — the only desk with a bullish stance on USD/KRW in the published table. The Citi regime prices a scenario where Fed cuts are shallower than the market discounts, the BoK moves first and more aggressively, and China's demand recovery remains too fragile to generate meaningful KRW tailwinds through the trade channel. That is a coherent, if minority, view.
At the other end, UBS at 1300 prices the most benign macro outcome: a synchronized global soft landing, a Fed that delivers 100-plus basis points of cuts by year-end, and a semiconductor cycle that sustains Korea's current-account surplus at levels that generate structural KRW demand. The 160-point gap between Citi and UBS is not a modelling artefact — it reflects a genuine binary on the Fed's reaction function and China's trajectory.
ING occupies the middle ground with a neutral stance and a 1425 target, effectively pricing modest USD/KRW downside from spot but not committing to the consensus KRW-appreciation thesis. J.P. Morgan at 1440 is technically bearish on USD/KRW but with a target still above spot, suggesting the desk sees limited near-term downside before a more meaningful move materialises later in the year — or that the bearish label reflects a directional lean rather than a high-conviction call.
RBC at 1430 similarly sits above current spot despite a bearish stance, which places both RBC and JPM in a category of desks that are directionally aligned with consensus but have not yet marked their targets below the current rate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate?
As of the week of August 13, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1417.39.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 contributing firms is 1380.0, implying a 2.71% decline in USD/KRW from current spot — a bearish consensus bias on the pair.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast?
Citi holds the highest published Dec-26 target at 1460.0, the only desk with an outright bullish stance on USD/KRW in the current consensus.
How wide is the forecast dispersion?
The spread between the top target (Citi, 1460) and the bottom target (StanChart, 1280) is 180 points, reflecting material disagreement on the BoK/Fed divergence path and the durability of Korea's semiconductor export cycle.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1460 year-end call and how it diverges from the 18-firm consensus.
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