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USD/KRW spot prints at 1412.28 as of the week of August 14, 2026 — sitting 2.34% above the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, per the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Eighteen desks are in the consensus, and the gap between the most bullish and most bearish year-end call spans 180 points — wide enough to reflect genuine disagreement over the macro regime, not just rounding differences.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 14, 2026): 1412.28
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Gap — spot vs consensus: 2.34% above consensus (bearish implied bias)
- Dispersion (max − min): 180 points
- Most bullish firm: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish firm: StanChart at 1280.0
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does USD/KRW Trade Above the Consensus Target?
The pair's 2.34% premium to the Dec-26 median reflects three overlapping pressures that most bearish desks acknowledge but discount differently in timing.
BoK vs Fed divergence. The Bank of Korea has moved cautiously on easing relative to the pace markets initially priced. Where the Fed's forward guidance has leaned toward further cuts through H2 2026, the BoK's inflation stickiness — partly imported via a weaker won — has compressed the rate differential less than the KRW-bullish camp assumed. Desks like Deutsche Bank (target 1350) and Morgan Stanley (1360) embed a scenario where Fed cuts accelerate into year-end, narrowing the differential and pulling the pair lower. Spot's persistence above 1400 suggests that timing assumption is not yet confirmed.
Semiconductor and tech export cycle. Korea's export performance in memory and advanced logic chips remains the primary current-account anchor for KRW. A robust H1 2026 shipment cycle — driven by AI server build-out demand — was broadly anticipated. The question for H2 is whether that demand sustains or front-loading effects fade. UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 price a continued export surplus that generates structural won demand. A deceleration in chip orders — particularly from hyperscalers managing capex budgets — would undercut that thesis and keep spot elevated.
China beta. KRW carries one of the highest China-growth betas in EM Asia. Subdued domestic demand in China, ongoing property sector drag, and cautious stimulus delivery have weighed on the won through the trade and sentiment channels simultaneously. Citi — the sole bullish outlier at 1460 — explicitly prices a scenario where China's recovery remains below trend through year-end, sustaining won weakness. That call is the most isolated in the table but has not been invalidated by data flow as of mid-August.
Where Is Dispersion Widest and What Does It Signal?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-14 11:07 UTC
The 180-point spread between Citi's 1460 and StanChart's 1280 is the defining feature of this consensus snapshot. It is not noise — it reflects three distinct regime bets.
The bearish cluster (USD/KRW falling) — which accounts for the majority of the 18 desks — prices Fed easing outpacing BoK, a durable semiconductor upcycle, and at least a partial China stabilisation. Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank both sit at the 1380 median, representing the consensus centre of gravity.
ING occupies the neutral position at 1425 — the only desk not calling a directional move of consequence from current spot. Their framework prices a range-bound outcome where BoK caution offsets Fed easing and China beta remains a drag.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 sits in the bearish camp by stance designation but with a target above spot — an unusual configuration that reflects a view of near-term upside risk before a late-year reversal. RBC at 1430 carries a similar structure.
The widest dispersion sits at the tails: UBS and HSBC below 1330 require an aggressive Fed cut sequence and a clean semiconductor demand continuation. Citi above spot requires China stagnation and BoK paralysis to persist. Neither tail is consensus — but neither has been ruled out by the data available through the week of August 14.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of August 14, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1412.28.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by year-end 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 forecasting desks is 1380.0, implying the pair trades 2.34% above where consensus expects it to finish the year.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target and which has the lowest?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460.0; StanChart holds the lowest at 1280.0 — a 180-point spread that defines the outer bounds of current institutional disagreement.
What is the implied directional bias from the consensus?
With spot above the median target and 16 of 18 desks either bearish or neutral on USD/KRW, the aggregate bias is for the pair to decline from current levels into year-end, contingent on Fed easing, export cycle durability, and China demand recovery.
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→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the most bullish published Dec-26 USD/KRW target in the current consensus.
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