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USD/KRW spot sits at 1412.0 as of the week of August 15, 2026 — 2.32% above the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, per the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Across 18 contributing desks, the range spans 180 points from 1280 to 1460, a spread wide enough to reflect substantively different macro regimes rather than mere timing disagreements.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 15, 2026): 1412.0
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −2.32% (spot well above median target)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
Firm-by-Firm Targets, December 2026
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1390.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does USD/KRW Trade Above Consensus Despite a Bearish Skew?
Thirteen of the fourteen desks with published stances lean bearish on USD/KRW — meaning they expect the won to strengthen against the dollar by year-end. Yet spot at 1412 sits 32 points above the median target, which points to near-term friction rather than a consensus breakdown.
Three structural forces are keeping the pair elevated. First, the Bank of Korea has moved cautiously relative to the Fed. The BoK's easing cycle has been constrained by household debt dynamics and residual inflation stickiness, leaving the rate differential less supportive of KRW than the bearish consensus assumes. If the Fed accelerates cuts in Q3-Q4 2026 while the BoK holds, the differential compresses and the consensus path becomes viable. If the Fed pauses, the pair stays bid.
Second, Korea's semiconductor export cycle — the primary hard-currency earner — matters enormously for the current account and, by extension, for structural KRW demand. A sustained AI-driven memory upcycle would generate the kind of export surplus that historically pulls USD/KRW lower. Desks with the most aggressive bearish targets, such as UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320, appear to price in a robust second-half chip demand recovery. Desks closer to spot — ING at 1425 (neutral) and Citi at 1460 (bullish) — are either agnostic on timing or see downside risk to that demand story.
Third, China beta remains a persistent headwind. Korea's export structure means KRW tracks Chinese growth sentiment closely. Any deterioration in Chinese domestic demand or further escalation in trade friction between Beijing and its partners drags KRW lower through both the trade channel and risk-off positioning. The pair's current premium to consensus likely reflects this unresolved China risk.
Where Is Dispersion Widest, and What Does It Signal?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-15 06:06 UTC
At 180 points peak-to-trough, the dispersion across 18 firms is not noise — it is a regime signal. Citi at 1460 is the sole explicitly bullish desk, pricing a scenario in which KRW continues to weaken: persistent Fed-BoK divergence, softer chip exports, or a China demand shock that the market has not fully discounted. J.P. Morgan at 1440 and RBC Capital Markets at 1430 sit in the upper tier with bearish stances, suggesting they expect modest won appreciation from current levels but see limited room for a sharp move lower in USD/KRW.
At the other end, UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 price a scenario that requires meaningful Fed easing, a clean semiconductor upcycle, and stable China conditions — all three simultaneously. That is a high-conviction call with a correspondingly high bar. Deutsche Bank at 1350 and Morgan Stanley at 1360 occupy a middle-bearish zone that implies won strength but stops short of the more aggressive re-rating.
The 180-point spread means that a reader using consensus as a single point estimate is compressing genuine macro disagreement into a number that satisfies no individual desk's underlying thesis. The median of 1380 is best read as the central tendency of a bimodal distribution, not a high-conviction anchor.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate as of August 15, 2026?
USD/KRW spot is 1412.0 as of the week of August 15, 2026, placing it 2.32% above the 18-firm consensus median Dec-26 target of 1380.0.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast for December 2026?
Citi holds the top target at 1460.0, the only desk in the current consensus with an explicitly bullish stance on USD/KRW.
How wide is the range of bank forecasts for USD/KRW?
Dispersion across all 18 firms is 180 points, running from StanChart's 1280 floor to Citi's 1460 ceiling — a spread that reflects substantively different assumptions on Fed-BoK divergence and the semiconductor export cycle.
What does the consensus bias imply for the Korean won?
The implied consensus bias is bearish on USD/KRW, meaning the majority of desks expect the won to appreciate against the dollar by year-end, with spot needing to fall roughly 32 points to reach the median target of 1380.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the desk's complete rationale on why USD/KRW holds above 1400 through year-end.
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