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USD/TRY trades at 47.379745 as of the week of July 28, 2026 — approximately 5.71% below the 18-firm cross-desk median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a dispersion of 12.80 big figures between the most and least constructive desks; the full USD/TRY bank forecast table captures the breadth of that spread in real time.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (July 28, 2026): 47.3797
- Cross-firm consensus — Dec-26 median target: 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min, 18 firms): 12.80 big figures
- Gap vs spot: −5.71% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY — highest target: ING at 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY — lowest target: UBS at 43.50
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 50.00 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why Does USD/TRY Trade Below Consensus?
The gap between spot (47.38) and the 18-firm median target (50.25) reflects how far the TCMB's orthodox tightening cycle has run ahead of the depreciation trajectory that most desks embedded in their year-end models. The central bank's real policy rate has moved into positive territory on a forward-looking basis for the first time in years, and the carry on TRY has attracted enough inflow to keep spot suppressed relative to what the inflation differential alone would imply.
Reserve dynamics reinforce the picture. Gross FX reserves have recovered materially from the lows seen during the 2021–2023 period of unorthodox policy, reducing the tail risk of a disorderly lira move that would force a consensus reset. As long as the TCMB maintains its current real-rate posture and refrains from premature easing — the risk that most bear cases hinge on — the gap between spot and year-end targets is likely to close gradually rather than abruptly. The consensus bias is bullish on USD/TRY (i.e., bearish TRY), but the pace implied by a 5.71% move over roughly five months is orderly by Turkish standards.
Inflation remains the swing variable. If the disinflation path stalls — as it has in prior cycles — the TCMB faces a credibility test: hold rates and accept slower growth, or ease prematurely and risk reigniting the depreciation spiral. Most desks price in some slippage, which is why the median target sits above spot even after a period of relative TRY stability.
Which Desks Are the Outliers, and What Drives the 12.80-Point Spread?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-07-28 06:03 UTC
The 12.80-figure dispersion between ING at 56.30 and UBS at 43.50 is the widest in the EM FX consensus tracked on this platform. That spread is not noise — it reflects genuinely different macro priors on three variables: the TCMB's easing timeline, the durability of reserve accumulation, and the pass-through of global risk appetite into TRY carry.
ING, the top-target desk at 56.30 with a neutral stance, appears to assign a higher probability to policy slippage or an external shock that forces a sharper lira adjustment before year-end. At 56.30, that target implies roughly 18.8% depreciation from current spot — a pace consistent with prior episodes of TCMB credibility erosion.
At the other end, UBS at 43.50 is the only desk with a target below current spot, implying TRY appreciation from here. That view requires the TCMB to hold its real-rate advantage, inflation to continue declining, and carry inflows to persist — a scenario that is plausible but demands flawless policy execution. HSBC at 44.50 is the second-lowest target and similarly constructive on TRY, though still above the UBS level.
The cluster of desks between 49.00 and 53.50 — including Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and J.P. Morgan — represents the modal view: gradual, managed depreciation consistent with Turkey's historical real effective exchange rate drift, with no catalyst for a step-change in either direction before December.
Notably, Citi carries a bullish stance on USD/TRY with a 49.50 target, making it the only desk in the table that is explicitly positioned for lira weakness from current levels while sitting below the median — a combination that suggests Citi sees the move as front-loaded rather than a year-end overshoot.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY rate?
As of the week of July 28, 2026, USD/TRY spot is 47.3797.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/TRY by end-2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-26 target across 18 desks is 50.25, implying roughly 5.71% upside for USD/TRY from current spot — a bullish consensus bias on the pair.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY forecast?
ING holds the highest Dec-26 target at 56.30, roughly 18.8% above current spot, reflecting the most bearish view on TRY in the 18-firm panel.
How wide is the dispersion across bank forecasts?
The spread between the highest target (ING at 56.30) and the lowest (UBS at 43.50) is 12.80 big figures — the widest dispersion in the EM FX consensus, underscoring genuine disagreement on the TCMB's policy durability and Turkey's inflation trajectory.
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→ See the full ING FX outlook for the desk's detailed rationale behind the 56.30 year-end target — the widest call in the USD/TRY consensus panel.
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