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USD/TRY spot at 47.70 sits 5.07% below the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, according to the full USD/TRY bank forecast table — and with 18 desks producing a max-to-min spread of 12.80 points, this remains the widest dispersion in EM FX.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 9, 2026): 47.70
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points across 18 firms
- Gap vs spot: −5.07% (spot well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY — highest target: ING at 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY — lowest target: UBS at 43.50
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why does USD/TRY trade so far below the Dec-26 consensus?
The 5.07% gap between spot and the 50.25 median target reflects a market that has, at least temporarily, rewarded the TCMB's orthodox posture more generously than most sell-side desks anticipated when they set year-end levels. The central bank has maintained a meaningfully positive real policy rate — a structural departure from the pre-2023 framework — and that has anchored short-term carry demand. FX reserve accumulation has also continued at a pace that reduces the probability of a disorderly depreciation event in the near term, compressing the risk premium that most desks baked into their year-end numbers.
That said, the consensus bias remains firmly bullish on USD/TRY. Thirteen of the fourteen desks with published stances in the table above are bearish on the lira — meaning they expect the pair to rise from current levels by December. The arithmetic is straightforward: if spot stays near 47.70 through year-end, the median desk misses its target by more than five figures. The market is either pricing a more durable disinflation than consensus expects, or carry flows are suppressing the pair below its fundamental anchor.
Which banks are the outliers, and what drives the 12.80-point spread?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-09 21:06 UTC
The 12.80-point dispersion — from UBS at 43.50 to ING at 56.30 — is the widest in the 18-firm EM FX consensus and reflects genuine disagreement on three variables: the pace of TCMB easing, the stickiness of Turkish inflation, and the durability of reserve buffers.
UBS and HSBC (43.50 and 44.50 respectively) sit at the bearish extreme on USD/TRY, implying lira appreciation from current spot — a view that requires the TCMB to hold real rates positive for longer than the market prices and for the current account to continue its gradual improvement. Both targets are already below spot, making them the most aggressive lira-bull calls in the panel.
ING at 56.30 anchors the other end. The desk's neutral stance combined with a target 18.0% above spot implies a structural depreciation view: that inflation will prove stickier than the TCMB's own projections, that real rates will erode faster than the market prices, and that reserve accumulation will slow once the current account deficit widens into year-end. J.P. Morgan at 53.50 and Deutsche Bank at 52.50 occupy the next tier, both bearish on the lira and pointing to fiscal slippage risk and the lagged pass-through of prior currency weakness into core CPI.
The cluster between 49.00 and 52.00 — Commerzbank, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, Nomura, RBC, Bank of America, MUFG, and Morgan Stanley — represents the modal view: managed depreciation at a pace broadly consistent with the inflation differential, with the TCMB tolerating gradual lira softening rather than defending a level.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate as of August 9, 2026?
USD/TRY was trading at 47.70 as of the August 9, 2026 consensus snapshot — approximately 5.07% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY year-end target?
ING holds the highest Dec-26 target in the panel at 56.30, implying roughly 18% depreciation from current spot levels by year-end.
Which bank has the lowest USD/TRY year-end target?
UBS carries the lowest target at 43.50, a level already below current spot — the most lira-constructive call across all 18 firms in the consensus.
How wide is the disagreement across banks on USD/TRY?
The max-to-min spread across 18 firms stands at 12.80 points — the difference between ING's 56.30 and UBS's 43.50 — making USD/TRY the pair with the widest forecast dispersion in the current EM FX consensus.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the desk's complete rationale on the 56.30 year-end target and its implications for lira carry positioning into Q4 2026.
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