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USD/TRY spot sits at 47.74 as of the week of August 11, 2026 — roughly 5% below the 18-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target of 50.25, a gap that reflects persistent uncertainty over the TCMB's real-rate trajectory and reserve adequacy. The full USD/TRY bank forecast table captures the widest dispersion in the EM FX consensus, with a 12.8-point spread between the most and least bearish desks.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 11, 2026): 47.74
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.8 points
- Gap — spot vs consensus: −4.99% (spot well below consensus, implying further lira depreciation priced in)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY (highest target): ING at 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY (lowest target): UBS at 43.50
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why does USD/TRY trade nearly 5% below the consensus target?
The gap between spot (47.74) and the 18-firm median (50.25) is not a signal that lira is overvalued in any fundamental sense — it reflects the market's current read on TCMB credibility holding better than many desks anticipated when they set year-end targets. The central bank has maintained a positive real policy rate through the first half of 2026, and gross reserves have recovered from their post-2021 lows. That combination has compressed the pace of lira depreciation relative to the trajectories most banks published in late 2025 and early 2026.
The consensus bias is nonetheless firmly bullish on USD/TRY — 13 of the 14 named desks carry a bearish lira stance, with only Citi registering as bullish on the pair at a 49.50 target. The structural argument is unchanged: Turkey's inflation differential with the US remains wide enough that purchasing-power erosion will reassert itself over the forecast horizon, and the TCMB's room to cut rates without reigniting lira pressure is limited. The debate is over timing and pace, not direction.
Which banks are the outliers and what does the 12.8-point spread signal?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-11 21:06 UTC
A 12.8-point dispersion on a spot rate of 47.74 is exceptional by EM standards — it implies a range of roughly 27% between the most and least pessimistic desks. ING anchors the high end at 56.30, a level that would represent roughly 18% depreciation from current spot. The desk's neutral stance — rather than outright bearish — reflects a view that carry dynamics could slow the move but not reverse it. At the other end, UBS targets 43.50, implying lira appreciation from here, a call that requires sustained TCMB discipline, continued reserve accumulation, and a benign global risk backdrop.
HSBC at 44.50 sits close to UBS and similarly assumes the disinflation path remains intact through year-end. The cluster of desks between 49.50 and 52.00 — including Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, Nomura, Bank of America, MUFG, and Morgan Stanley — represents the modal view: gradual, managed depreciation consistent with a real effective exchange rate that the TCMB is willing to tolerate. J.P. Morgan at 53.50 and Deutsche Bank at 52.50 sit above the median but well short of ING, reflecting concern that reserve coverage is thinner than headline numbers suggest once swap-adjusted positions are stripped out.
The breadth of the range is itself informative. When 18 banks cannot agree within 12.8 points on a single currency pair, it typically signals that the key variable — here, TCMB policy credibility — is genuinely binary in its potential outcomes rather than a matter of calibrating a shared macro model.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY rate as of August 11, 2026?
Spot USD/TRY is 47.74016 as of the week of August 11, 2026, placing it approximately 5% below the 18-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target of 50.25.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/TRY by end of 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 institutional desks is 50.25, implying further lira depreciation from current spot levels if the consensus proves correct.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY target and which has the lowest?
ING carries the highest Dec-26 target at 56.30; UBS has the lowest at 43.50 — a spread of 12.8 points that represents the widest dispersion in the current EM FX consensus.
How many banks are in the USD/TRY consensus and what is the dominant view?
Eighteen firms contribute to the consensus; the dominant stance is bearish on TRY, with the overwhelming majority of named desks targeting USD/TRY above current spot by year-end.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most aggressive USD/TRY call in the current consensus.
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