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Spot USD/TRY at 47.757 trades roughly 5% below the 18-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a dispersion of 12.8 figures between the highest and lowest published calls — the widest spread in EM FX tracked on the full USD/TRY bank forecast table. The implied consensus bias is bullish on the pair, meaning the street collectively expects further lira depreciation from current levels.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 12, 2026): 47.757
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 50.25
- Gap vs spot: −4.96% (spot well below consensus)
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.8 figures
- Most bullish on USD/TRY — ING: Dec-26 target 56.30
- Most bearish on USD/TRY — UBS: Dec-26 target 43.50
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why does USD/TRY trade nearly 5% below the street's year-end consensus?
The gap between spot and the 50.25 median reflects a lira that has held firmer than most desks anticipated entering the second half of 2026. The TCMB's real-rate posture is the operative variable. After the aggressive tightening cycle that began in mid-2023, the central bank has maintained a policy rate well above headline CPI — a configuration that, when credible, compresses the carry-adjusted depreciation path. Investors willing to hold lira paper through the disinflation corridor have been rewarded; the spot rate has lagged the depreciation glide path that most consensus models embed.
Reserve dynamics reinforce the picture. Gross FX reserves have rebuilt materially from the depleted levels of 2023, reducing the perceived tail risk of a disorderly devaluation. When reserve cover is thin, the market demands a larger risk premium embedded in spot; as that cover improves, the pair can trade below model-implied fair value for extended periods. The current 4.96% undershoot relative to consensus is consistent with a market that is not yet pricing the full depreciation that most sell-side models project for the remainder of the year — but is also not dismissing it entirely.
No major TCMB policy announcements or macro data releases landed in the seven days through August 12, leaving positioning and carry dynamics as the dominant short-term drivers.
Which banks are the outliers and where is the dispersion widest?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-12 06:06 UTC
At 12.8 figures, the max-to-min spread across the 18-firm panel is exceptional even by USD/TRY standards. Two desks define the poles.
ING carries the highest Dec-26 target in the panel at 56.30, a level that implies roughly 18% additional lira depreciation from current spot. The desk's neutral stance — rather than outright bullish — suggests the call is driven more by structural inflation and fiscal assumptions than by a near-term momentum view. At the other end, UBS sits at 43.50, implying the lira actually strengthens from here on a spot basis, a view that requires sustained real-rate credibility, continued reserve accumulation, and no material deterioration in the current account. HSBC is the only other desk below 45, with a 44.50 target.
The cluster between 49.00 and 53.50 — where Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, Nomura, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, MUFG, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and J.P. Morgan all reside — represents a broadly shared view that managed depreciation continues at a pace consistent with the TCMB's implicit glide path, without a disorderly overshoot. Commerzbank at 49.00 and Citi at 49.50 sit just below the median, with Citi the only desk in the visible panel carrying a bullish stance on the pair despite a target above spot — a configuration that typically signals the desk expects near-term USD/TRY upside before any mean reversion.
The breadth of dispersion reflects genuine uncertainty about three variables that rarely move together predictably: the pace of Turkish disinflation, the TCMB's willingness to cut rates once inflation normalises, and the durability of reserve accumulation under external-demand stress.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate as of August 12, 2026?
Spot USD/TRY is 47.757 as of August 12, 2026, placing it approximately 4.96% below the 18-firm cross-bank consensus Dec-26 median of 50.25.
What is the bank consensus forecast for USD/TRY by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 institutional desks is 50.25, implying the consensus expects further lira depreciation from current spot levels — a bullish bias on the pair.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY forecast and which has the lowest?
ING holds the highest Dec-26 target at 56.30; UBS holds the lowest at 43.50 — a spread of 12.8 figures that represents the widest dispersion in the EM FX consensus panel.
Why is dispersion so wide in USD/TRY relative to other EM pairs?
The 12.8-point max-to-min spread reflects deep disagreement over the TCMB's real-rate credibility, the inflation convergence timeline, and reserve sustainability — three variables where small assumption differences compound into large year-end target divergences.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most aggressive depreciation call in the current USD/TRY consensus panel.
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