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USD/TRY sits at 47.774855 as of the week of August 13, 2026 — roughly 5% below the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25 — while the full USD/TRY bank forecast table reveals the widest target dispersion in the EM FX universe, with 12.80 lira separating the most and least bearish desks.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 13, 2026): 47.7749
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-2026 (18 firms): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 (ING 56.30 vs UBS 43.50)
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −4.93% (spot well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY: ING at 56.30 (neutral stance)
- Most bearish on USD/TRY: UBS at 43.50 (bearish stance)
Firm Forecast Table
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why Does USD/TRY Trade Nearly 5% Below the Dec-26 Consensus?
The gap between spot (47.77) and the 18-firm median target (50.25) reflects two competing forces that have kept the lira firmer than most desks anticipated heading into the second half of 2026.
First, the TCMB's real-rate posture has remained more credible than the consensus assumed at the start of the year. With Turkish CPI still elevated but on a confirmed disinflation trajectory, the central bank has preserved a meaningfully positive real policy rate — a structural departure from the pre-2023 regime. Foreign portfolio inflows into Turkish fixed income, attracted by that carry, have provided a steady bid for the lira that mechanically suppresses USD/TRY relative to year-opening forecasts.
Second, reserve dynamics have improved materially. Net reserves — once deeply negative on a swap-adjusted basis — have rebuilt through a combination of current-account adjustment and sustained capital inflows. A larger reserve buffer reduces the probability of a disorderly depreciation episode, compressing the risk premium that had previously kept the lira chronically undervalued relative to purchasing-power benchmarks. The market is, in effect, pricing a lower tail risk than the consensus distribution implies.
The implied consensus bias across all 18 firms remains bullish on USD/TRY — meaning the street collectively expects the lira to weaken from here to year-end. The question is by how much, and that is precisely where the dispersion becomes the story.
Which Banks Are the Outliers, and What Explains the 12.80-Point Spread?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-13 06:05 UTC
At 12.80 lira between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets, USD/TRY carries the widest forecast dispersion in EM FX. That spread is not noise — it reflects genuine disagreement about the TCMB's reaction function and the sustainability of the disinflation path.
ING sits at the top of the distribution with a 56.30 target, a neutral stance that embeds a view that the lira's current strength is policy-dependent and fragile. The ING framework puts weight on the risk that the TCMB eases prematurely as growth slows, compressing the real rate advantage and triggering a renewed depreciation cycle. At 56.30, ING implies roughly 18% additional USD/TRY upside from current spot — a materially different scenario from the rest of the panel.
At the other end, UBS targets 43.50 — below current spot — with a bearish USD/TRY stance. UBS is effectively calling for lira appreciation from here, a view that requires the TCMB to hold the real-rate line through year-end, inflation to undershoot the consensus path, and reserve accumulation to continue. HSBC at 44.50 is the only other desk with a sub-spot target, similarly anchored in the view that the structural adjustment is more durable than the median implies.
The cluster of desks in the 49.00–53.50 range — Commerzbank at 49.00, Citi at 49.50, Deutsche Bank at 52.50, J.P. Morgan at 53.50 — represents the modal view: gradual lira depreciation consistent with residual inflation differentials and a TCMB that begins a measured easing cycle before year-end. Morgan Stanley and MUFG, both at 52.00, sit near the upper end of that central cluster.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate?
As of August 13, 2026, USD/TRY trades at 47.7749.
What is the bank consensus forecast for USD/TRY by end of 2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-26 target across 18 banks is 50.25, implying roughly 5% additional lira depreciation from current spot levels.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY forecast, and which has the lowest?
ING holds the highest Dec-26 target at 56.30; UBS holds the lowest at 43.50 — a spread of 12.80 lira across the 18-firm panel.
How far is spot from the consensus target?
Spot is 4.93% below the Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, meaning the street as a whole expects USD/TRY to rise — i.e., the lira to weaken — from current levels before year-end.
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→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most aggressive USD/TRY target in the consensus, or review the complete 18-firm panel at the USD/TRY bank forecast table.
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Firms covered in this article
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Commerzbank →
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Citi →
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Bank of America →
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MUFG →
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