On this page · 3 sections▾
USD/TRY spot at 47.885 sits 4.71% below the cross-firm median Dec-2026 target of 50.25, according to the full USD/TRY bank forecast table — and with 18 desks spanning a 12.80-point range from 43.50 to 56.30, this pair carries the widest forecast dispersion in emerging-market FX.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 16, 2026): 47.885
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 50.25
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.80 points across 18 firms
- Gap vs spot: −4.71% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/TRY: ING at 56.30 (neutral stance)
- Most bearish on USD/TRY: UBS at 43.50
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.50 | bearish |
| HSBC | 44.50 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 49.00 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.50 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.00 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.00 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.50 | bearish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 50.50 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.00 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.00 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.00 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.50 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.50 | bearish |
| ING | 56.30 | neutral |
Why does USD/TRY trade well below the Dec-26 consensus?
The TCMB's real-rate posture is the central variable. Following the policy pivot that began in mid-2023, the central bank sustained a positive real policy rate through 2025 and into 2026, anchoring near-term lira depreciation at a pace slower than most desks had modelled. Headline CPI has decelerated materially from its 2024 peak, and while the disinflation path remains uneven, the monthly prints through mid-2026 have been consistent enough to prevent the kind of emergency rate reversal that would reprice the lira sharply lower in the near term.
Reserve dynamics reinforce the picture. Gross FX reserves have rebuilt from the depleted levels of 2023, and net reserves — the metric that matters most for intervention credibility — have recovered sufficiently to deter speculative short positioning at current spot levels. That reserve cushion, combined with a TCMB that has demonstrated willingness to defend orderly depreciation rather than permit disorderly moves, explains why spot at 47.885 sits 4.71% below a consensus that was largely set when the lira's trajectory looked more vulnerable.
The implication is not that consensus is wrong — it is that the market is pricing a slower depreciation glide path than the median Dec-26 target implies. Thirteen of the 14 desks with published stances are bearish on the lira (i.e., expect USD/TRY to rise from here), so the directional call is not in dispute. The debate is about pace and terminal level.
Which banks are the outliers, and what drives the 12.80-point dispersion?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-16 06:09 UTC
The 12.80-point spread between UBS at 43.50 and ING at 56.30 is not noise — it reflects genuinely different frameworks for the same set of inputs.
UBS at 43.50 is the most lira-constructive desk in the panel. That target implies the lira strengthens from current spot, a view that rests on a sustained real-rate premium, continued reserve accumulation, and a current-account adjustment that reduces the structural funding requirement. At 43.50, UBS is effectively pricing a soft-landing scenario for Turkish macro: inflation falls to single digits, the TCMB cuts gradually without triggering capital outflows, and external financing remains available.
ING at 56.30 — the only desk carrying a neutral rather than bearish stance — sits 17.5% above current spot and 12% above the next-highest target (J.P. Morgan at 53.50). ING's framework weights the residual inflation stock more heavily, arguing that the TCMB's real rate, while positive, is insufficient to compress inflation expectations durably. A premature easing cycle, or any external shock that pressures the current account, would accelerate lira depreciation toward that level.
The cluster of desks in the 49.00–52.50 range — including Société Générale, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, MUFG, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank — represents the modal view: managed depreciation of roughly 5–10% from current spot through year-end, consistent with the TCMB allowing the lira to drift lower at a pace that preserves real-rate credibility without triggering a confidence shock.
Citi is the one desk in the table carrying a bullish USD/TRY stance with a target of 49.50 — above spot but below the median — suggesting a more moderate depreciation call than the bearish majority, albeit directionally aligned.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/TRY spot rate as of August 16, 2026?
USD/TRY spot is 47.885 as of the August 16, 2026 consensus snapshot, placing it well below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/TRY at end-2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-2026 target across 18 desks is 50.25, implying a consensus bias for further lira depreciation from current levels.
Which bank has the highest USD/TRY forecast and which has the lowest?
ING holds the highest Dec-26 target at 56.30; UBS holds the lowest at 43.50, producing a 12.80-point dispersion — the widest in EM FX coverage.
How far is spot from the consensus target?
At 47.885, spot trades 4.71% below the median Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, meaning the majority of desks expect the lira to depreciate further before year-end.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the most bullish USD/TRY target in the current consensus panel.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
RBC →
Continue tracking USD/TRY
More from USD/TRY
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.28, Median Target 50.25 — Week of September 1, 2026
USD/TRY trades 3.93% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Turkey's disinflation path.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Dec-26 Target, Week of Aug 31 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 48.25 sits 3.98% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Turkey's disinflation path.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Median, 12.80 Spread — Week of August 30, 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 48.25 sits 4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
Share