On this page · 5 sections▾
USD/TRY trades at 48.802665 as of the week of September 21, 2026 — roughly 3.4% below the 17-firm full USD/TRY bank forecast table median Dec-26 consensus of 50.5, with a dispersion of 12.8 figures separating the most and least bearish desks on the lira.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 48.8027
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 17 firms): 50.5
- Dispersion (max − min): 12.8 figures
- Gap vs spot: −3.36% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bearish on TRY: ING at 56.3 (neutral stance)
- Most bullish on TRY: UBS at 43.5 (bearish USD/TRY)
Firm Forecasts
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas | 47.5 | bearish |
| Citi | 49.5 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 49.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 50.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 50.0 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 50.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 50.5 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 51.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 52.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 52.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 52.5 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 53.5 | bearish |
| ING | 56.3 | neutral |
Why Does USD/TRY Trade Below the Consensus Target?
The 3.4% gap between spot and the 50.5 median reflects a market that has, at least temporarily, priced in more TCMB credibility than the consensus assumes. The central bank's real-rate stance — maintaining a sharply positive ex-ante real policy rate as headline CPI has decelerated from its 2024 peak — has supported carry demand and slowed the pace of lira depreciation relative to what most desks modelled earlier in the year. Gross reserve accumulation has also been a stabilising factor: the TCMB has rebuilt net FX reserves from deeply negative territory, reducing the tail risk of a disorderly adjustment that several banks had embedded in their base cases.
That said, the consensus bias remains bullish on USD/TRY — thirteen of the fourteen desks with updated forecasts in this snapshot carry a bearish TRY stance, and the aggregate 17-firm median still points to further lira weakness by year-end. The current spot level does not invalidate the depreciation thesis; it compresses the remaining runway. A move from 48.80 to 50.5 by December implies roughly 3.5% additional weakness — modest by historical Turkish standards, but the distribution of outcomes around that central estimate is unusually wide.
Which Desks Are the Outliers and What Drives the 12.8-Point Dispersion?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: UBS · HSBC · BNP Paribas · Commerzbank +13 more
17 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-21 16:07 UTC
The 12.8-figure gap between ING at 56.3 and UBS at 43.5 is the widest dispersion in the EM FX consensus panel and reflects genuine disagreement on three variables: the durability of the TCMB's disinflation, the pace of reserve normalisation, and the political tolerance for sustained real appreciation.
ING, the top-target firm at 56.3 with a neutral stance, appears to price in a scenario where inflation proves stickier than the TCMB's forward guidance implies, eroding the real-rate buffer and forcing a faster nominal depreciation path in Q4. At the other extreme, UBS at 43.5 — the most TRY-constructive desk — embeds a view that the disinflation trajectory holds, the current account gap narrows further, and carry inflows sustain lira demand through year-end. That target now sits 11.7% below spot, meaning UBS is calling for meaningful TRY appreciation from current levels.
BNP Paribas at 47.5 is also below spot, implying TRY strength — a minority view shared only with UBS among the desks in this snapshot. The cluster between 49.0 and 52.5 — covering Commerzbank, Société Générale, Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered, Nomura, Bank of America, MUFG, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank — represents the modal view: gradual, managed depreciation consistent with TCMB's implicit crawl, with no sharp discontinuity. J.P. Morgan at 53.5 sits at the upper end of that cluster, reflecting a more sceptical read on the inflation path.
Citi at 49.5 is the sole desk carrying a bullish stance on USD/TRY while targeting a level below spot — an internally consistent position only if their reference spot at time of publication was materially lower than 48.80.
What Is the TCMB Real-Rate and Reserve Picture Telling Markets?
The TCMB's policy credibility trade is the central variable. As long as the central bank maintains a sufficiently positive real rate — and the reserve rebuild continues — the lira has a structural carry bid that compresses realised volatility and discourages speculative shorts. The risk scenario that animates the upper tail of the distribution (ING, JPM) is one where fiscal dominance reasserts itself, either through pre-election spending pressures or an external shock that forces the TCMB to choose between defending the currency and supporting growth. In that scenario, the 56.3 target becomes plausible. The lower tail (UBS, BNP) requires the disinflation to overshoot expectations, real rates to remain elevated into 2027, and no material deterioration in the current account — a narrower but not implausible path given the trajectory through mid-2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does USD/TRY spot stand as of September 21, 2026?
Spot is 48.802665, approximately 3.4% below the 17-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 50.5.
What is the range of bank forecasts for USD/TRY by end-2026?
The dispersion across all 17 firms in the panel is 12.8 figures, from UBS at 43.5 to ING at 56.3.
Which bank is most bearish on the Turkish lira?
ING carries the highest USD/TRY target at 56.3, implying significant further lira depreciation from current spot levels.
Is the overall consensus bullish or bearish on USD/TRY?
The implied consensus bias is bullish on USD/TRY — meaning most desks expect the lira to weaken further — with thirteen of the fourteen updated desks in this snapshot carrying a bearish TRY stance.
→ See the full ING FX outlook for the top-of-range USD/TRY view and the assumptions behind the 56.3 year-end target.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Bnpparibas →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Stanchart →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Continue tracking USD/TRY
More from USD/TRY
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.85, Spread 12.8 — Week of Sep 24, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.85, roughly 3.3% below the 17-firm Dec-26 median of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point spread separating ING from UBS.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.84, Spread Hits 12.8 — Week of September 23, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.84, roughly 3.3% below the 17-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Turkey's disinflation path.
- USD/TRY
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.82, Median 50.5 — Week of September 22, 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 48.82 sits 3.33% below the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.5, with a 12.8-point dispersion that ranks among the widest in EM FX.
Share