CEE & CCA week ahead: Central bank decisions and inflation data in focus
At a Glance
The National Bank of Poland is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, despite dovish signals from Governor Adam Glapiński, reflecting continued uncertainty in inflation trajectories and economic conditions across Central and Eastern Europe. Per the full note , while recent inflation print increases have raised pressures, the central bank appears more aligned with sustaining current policy rather than easing. Concurrently, Hungary is poised to release inflation data that may show upward pressure due to recent fuel price hikes, which could be pivotal for monetary policy discussions in the region.
Key Takeaways
- 01Poland's NBP likely to hold rates at 3.75% amid inflation concerns.
- 02Hungary may see inflation rise, influenced by recent fuel price increases.
- 03Insufficient economic recovery could lead to reconsideration of policy stances across CEE region.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk positions that the NBP will keep rates steady, framing this as a defensive stance against evolving inflation narratives and economic signals within the region. Per the source, Governor Glapiński's dovish rhetoric contrasts with broader Monetary Policy Council views, suggesting a split in perspectives on easing.
Supporting this outlook, inflation in Poland is nearing the upper bounds of the central bank's acceptable range, reinforcing the decision to remain at 3.75% for the foreseeable future. The research notes significant developments expected from Hungary, where inflation is set to rebound, highlighting the interplay between energy prices and central bank actions.
Competing forecasts hint that significant surprises in either inflation or economic activity could prompt NBP shifts sooner than anticipated, though such alternative scenarios are currently deemed less likely.
Market Implications
Traders should focus on the upcoming inflation release from Hungary, which will likely influence both regional sentiment and currency positioning. A stronger-than-expected inflation print could drive further volatility in the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint, particularly if it steers central bank expectations.
From the original
Articles CEE & CCA week ahead: Central bank decisions and inflation data in focus Published 11:02 Czech Republic Hungary Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Poland and Turkey will announce monetary policy decisions next week, while Hungary
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Polish rates remain unchanged; post-meeting statement signals continuity
Per the full note [source], the National Bank of Poland held its main rate at 3.75% in September, matching market consensus, with a press release broadly unchanged from July, signaling policy continuity. The Council acknowledged firmer GDP growth and higher CPI inflation driven by fuel prices but saw only a modest rise in core inflation and noted weaker wage growth and falling employment as offsetting factors. The desk at ING sees rates on hold in the coming months, with potential cuts delayed until 2H26, and dismisses any near-term easing despite Governor Glapiński's earlier dovish tilt. This view sits within a stable Polish macro backdrop, with no high-impact domestic events on the calendar over the next month to force a rethink.
National Bank of Poland preview: No cuts, but no hikes either
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to maintain its interest rate policy unchanged in September, a stance that reflects concerns about inflation amidst rising geopolitical tensions and energy prices. Per the full note from ing-think, heightened anxieties in the Middle East and increasing oil prices leave little room for easing, despite previous dovish signals from NBP Governor Adam Glapiński. Inflation reached 2.5% in July and August, nearing the upper limit of the NBP's acceptable range, aligning with the governor's growing caution following his more optimistic July projections. Without any upcoming market-moving events, traders should prepare for a steady policy outlook until year-end, barring unexpected inflation fluctuations.
Polish rates on hold as policymakers stay cautious amid rising geopolitical risks
The desk interprets the National Bank of Poland's decision to keep rates on hold as a reflection of cautious policymaking amid rising geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation. Per the full note [source], the Monetary Policy Council's wait-and-see approach suggests that rates may remain unchanged until at least July, with inflation pressures driven by higher core metrics. This aligns with our view that the central bank is prioritizing stability in uncertain times, particularly given the lack of high-impact events on the calendar. Overall, the consensus among analysts indicates a similar outlook, with expectations for rates to stabilize in the near term.
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