Polish MPC remains patient and keeps policy rates on hold in October
At a Glance
Per the full note from ing-think, the National Bank of Poland kept its reference rate at 3.75% in October, and the desk argues this on-hold stance can persist for several months despite headline inflation rising. The MPC attributed the September uptick primarily to fuel prices while core inflation likely edged lower, and it introduced 'regulatory decisions concerning energy prices' as a new risk to the outlook. Analysts Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak frame the statement as broadly neutral with a mildly dovish tint, suggesting any tightening cycle would not arrive until 1Q27 — and would be less aggressive than markets currently price. No high-impact events are scheduled for Poland over the next 30 days, meaning the next real catalyst is Governor Glapinski's press conference and the evolution of regulated energy prices. Our internal coverage bundle contains no tracked currency pair for this commentary, so we have no consensus target or per-firm spread to anchor against.