UBS raises USD/JPY forecasts on oil prices and BoJ caution - Investing.com Australia
At a Glance
UBS upgrades USD/JPY forecasts, citing elevated oil prices and Bank of Japan caution, contrasting with consensus expectations for yen appreciation.
Key Takeaways
- 01UBS raises USD/JPY forecasts on oil prices and BoJ caution.
- 02Consensus targets 147.50 for Dec26, but UBS likely expects a higher path.
- 03JPMorgan aligns with UBS at 164; Morgan Stanley is most contrary at 140.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
UBS has raised its USD/JPY forecasts, arguing that higher oil prices will keep US inflation elevated and delay Fed easing, while the Bank of Japan remains hesitant to normalize policy aggressively. This combination supports a stronger dollar versus the yen.
The desk sees limited scope for yen appreciation near term, as Japan's energy import costs rise with oil and the BoJ maintains a cautious stance. UBS implicitly rejects the consensus view that the yen will strengthen to 147-150 by end-2026.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal consensus for USD/JPY stands at 147.50 for December 2026, with a firm-level spread from 140 to 164—a significant 24-figure range. UBS's bullish dollar view diverges from the median, which expects yen gains.
Specific firm targets for Dec26 highlight the divergence: - JPMorgan: 164 - Goldman Sachs: 148 - Morgan Stanley: 140 - Barclays: 149
JPMorgan aligns with UBS's dollar-bullish stance, while Morgan Stanley is the most bearish on USD/JPY.
How other firms see it
Among the banks in our coverage, JPMorgan stands out as aligned with UBS, forecasting USD/JPY at 164 for December 2026—well above consensus. This is the most extreme dollar-bullish call.
In contrast, the majority of firms see yen strength: - Morgan Stanley: 140 - Deutsche Bank: 143 - MUFG: 146 - BofA: 147 - Goldman Sachs: 148 - Barclays: 149 - ING: 152
Notably, Goldman Sachs and Barclays are close to consensus, while Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank are the most contrary, targeting significant yen appreciation.
Market Implications
The UBS revision adds to the bull case for USD/JPY, potentially supporting spot levels near 157. If other banks follow, yen depreciation could accelerate, challenging the consensus view of a gradual yen recovery.
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bearish | 159.60 |
Bank of America | Bullish | 149.00 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 145.00 |
From the original
UBS raises USD/JPY forecasts on oil prices and BoJ caution Investing.com Australia
Related speeches
4 itemsUBS raises USD/JPY forecasts on oil prices and BoJ caution - Investing.com
UBS has revised its USD/JPY forecasts higher, citing rising oil prices and the Bank of Japan's cautious policy stance. This aligns with a hawkish USD view and challenges the consensus expectation of yen appreciation.
UBS Raises USD/JPY Forecast: Oil Prices And BoJ Caution Trigger Yen Weakness - Bitcoin World
UBS raises USD/JPY forecast, citing higher oil prices and BoJ caution, aligning with the bearish yen view held by several banks. The consensus still favors yen appreciation, but the wide spread among forecasts underscores uncertainty.
UBS Raises USD/JPY Forecast: Oil Prices and BoJ Caution Trigger Yen Weakness - Dailyhunt
UBS has raised its USD/JPY forecast, citing oil price dynamics and BoJ caution as triggers for yen weakness. The revision aligns with a hawkish dollar view and contrasts with consensus that sees yen strength by year-end.
More like this
5 itemsGoldman Sachs: EUR may have run a Little Ahead of Fundamentals; USDJPY: has Structural Downside Asymmetry - eFXdata
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Wavering around 158.00 with 200-day SMA holding bulls - www.tmgm.com
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Wavering around 158.00 with 200-day SMA holding bulls - Mitrade
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Wavering around 158.00 with 200-day SMA holding bulls - FXStreet