EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flatlines below 1.1550, while staying bearish under 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD continues to show weakness, now trading below the 1.1550 mark and the critical 100-day SMA, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. Current spot at 1.1419 reflects a broader view of weakness in the Euro against a stronger US dollar. This technical landscape suggests that a further downside move is likely, especially with a lack of bullish momentum from the Eurozone. Traders are keenly monitoring this 1.1550 level for any potential reversals, while the bearish sentiment remains prevalent.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1600 (median across various firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.1800) and TMGM at the lower (1.1447). The headline from FXStreet aligns with this perspective but emphasizes the bearish outlook under the 100-day SMA.
How firms align
Goldman and MUFG reflect a more optimistic view with forecast targets of 1.1800 and 1.1800 respectively, indicating a slightly more bullish positioning against the current market sentiment. On the other hand, TMGM and Investec are closer to the current trading range, suggesting caution within the bearish framework. For further details, refer to our reports on Goldman and MUFG.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from ING and Deutsche Bank highlight a more cautious stance, with both setting their targets at 1.1700 for March 2026. This aligns with our sentiment of flatlining below the 1.1550 level noted in our recent coverage, such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-11.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1419, indicating bearish pressure below 1.1550 level.
- 02Monitor the 100-day SMA for signals of further downside momentum.
- 03Key resistance identified at 1.1550; mean reversion traders will watch this vigilantly.
- 04Broader market sentiment remains bearish towards the Euro against a strong Dollar.
Market implications
Next week’s economic data from the Eurozone could be critical, particularly any surprises from ECB announcements that might impact EUR sentiment. The current consensus target of 1.1600 highlights the scales of uncertainty around the pair's immediate movement.
Risks to this view
Should upcoming ECB policies instill a stronger Euro sentiment or unexpected positive economic indicators emerge from the Eurozone, we could see EUR/USD rally exceeding 1.1550. Such a scenario would challenge the prevailing bearish outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range phase after failed upside break against US Dollar – UOB
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Morning briefing: EUR/USD could decline towards 1.1500 and lower
Technical breakdown below key support at 1.1500 would confirm EUR/USD weakness and shift near-term momentum decisively USD-positive.
Euro advances as US Dollar weakens amid cooling Inflation
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