Morning briefing: EUR/USD could decline towards 1.1500 and lower
The EUR/USD pair continues to face downward pressure, with projections suggesting a decline towards 1.1500 and potentially lower. Technical indicators have broken through significant support levels, cementing a bearish outlook for the euro against the dollar. This dynamic is crucial as it shifts sentiment towards the dollar, which is currently favored given the assessed bullish trends. With recent forecasts reflecting varying firm targets, the consensus appears to be converging on a lower trajectory for the euro.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently at 1.1700, based on a median across firms, with notable divergence in projections; Goldman sits higher at 1.1800, while TMGM offers a more conservative target of 1.1447. The bearish sentiment from FXStreet aligns with this backdrop, particularly given the recent breakdown under the key 1.1500 support level.
How firms align
Key firms such as BofA and MUFG maintain a bearish stance with lower targets of 1.1240 and 1.1800 for Mar26, respectively, emphasizing the sentiment captured in the headline. Conversely, Deutsche Bank's outlook of 1.1800 suggests a degree of optimism that stands against the prevailing bearish narrative highlighted in our coverage.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show a range of expectations with ING and Deutsche Bank both revising their March targets upwards to 1.1700 and 1.1800, respectively. For more details, see our research note at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-12.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Technical breakdown below 1.1500 confirms bearish trend.
- 02EUR bears gaining momentum; focus on key support levels.
- 03Watch for potential tests of 1.1400 as pivotal for sentiment.
- 04Firm forecasts diverge, reflecting a spread in sentiment.
Market implications
Next, traders should closely monitor the 1.1400 level as a potential support area. Upcoming economic data releases may serve as catalysts to affirm or challenge this bearish outlook, especially as our consensus number reflects a general tilt towards a lower EUR/USD trajectory.
Risks to this view
Should upcoming economic releases indicate stronger-than-expected Eurozone performance or a shift in the ECB's monetary policy stance, the current bearish view could be invalidated. Additionally, unexpected geopolitical developments may also provide reasons for euro strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range phase after failed upside break against US Dollar – UOB
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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flatlines below 1.1550, while staying bearish under 100-day SMA
EUR/USD technical breakdown below 100-day SMA signals continued downside bias; resistance at 1.1550 remains key level for mean reversion traders.
Euro advances as US Dollar weakens amid cooling Inflation
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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Fading bullish momentum puts focus on 1.1500 support
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Week of August 13, 2026
Spot EUR/USD at 1.1535 sits 0.56% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, with a 0.14-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the dollar path.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1525, Median Target 1.16 — Week of August 12, 2026
EUR/USD spot at 1.1525 sits 0.65% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.14 spread separating Nordea's 1.24 bull case from Citi's 1.10 bear.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1541, Median Target 1.16 — Week of August 11, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 0.51% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.14 dispersion range flagging unusually wide disagreement on the pair's year-end destination.