EUR/USD Price Forecast: Fading bullish momentum puts focus on 1.1500 support
The EUR/USD pair has shown signs of waning bullish momentum, pointing towards a potential retracement to key support at 1.1500. This shift is critical as it could trigger stop-loss orders and exacerbate USD strength, especially given the current sentiment in the FX market is skewed bullish for the dollar and bearish for the euro. Traders should remain cautious as the outlook for EUR/USD appears precarious in light of these developments.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently sits at 1.1600 (median across multiple firms), with firms like Morgan Stanley and MUFG targeting the higher end at 1.2000, compared to TMGM's more conservative stance at 1.1448. The divergence amongst firms indicates varying degrees of confidence regarding the euro's ability to sustain strength against the dollar.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs is at the upper end of the spectrum with a target of 1.1800 for March 2026, which closely aligns with the caution highlighted in the headline, as it suggests a more bullish view compared to the current market dynamics. On the contrary, TMGM's outlook at 1.1447 signals skepticism about EUR/USD retrieving momentum in the near term, aligning with the prevalent bearish sentiment.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms like ING have downgraded their March target to 1.1700 and December to 1.1500, reflecting increased caution about the euro's trajectory. Our prior insights suggest market sentiment is shifting; for further detail, see /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-12.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01A breach below 1.1500 could instigate significant selling pressure.
- 02Data shows fading upward momentum for EUR/USD; traders should be vigilant.
- 03USD strength is reinforced by technical analysis and market sentiment.
- 04Key support at 1.1500 is crucial for EUR/USD's near-term outlook.
Market implications
Next, traders should closely monitor the 1.1500 support level, as a break below could trigger accelerated selling and solidify bullish positioning in USD. Additionally, the upcoming ECB meeting could provide further insights into eurozone monetary policy, influencing EUR/USD dynamics.
Risks to this view
A shift in sentiment, particularly if eurozone economic data improves unexpectedly or if the ECB signals a more hawkish stance, could invalidate the bearish outlook. Watch for any such developments that might prompt a reassessment of current targets.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range tests with upside bias against US Dollar – ING
ING sees EUR/USD testing range highs with upside bias, suggesting near-term support for euro strength against dollar.
Euro: Range phase after failed upside break against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD rejection at resistance suggests sellers controlled upper bound; range-bound outlook implies limited directional conviction until next breakout catalyst.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flatlines below 1.1550, while staying bearish under 100-day SMA
EUR/USD technical breakdown below 100-day SMA signals continued downside bias; resistance at 1.1550 remains key level for mean reversion traders.