EUR/USD Price Forecast: Hits fresh low since July 29, around 1.1425 as USD stays firm
EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1446, marking a fresh three-week low and pivoting around the 1.1425 level as the USD maintains its bullish stance. This price action is reflective of market participants’ persistent confidence in the dollar, largely driven by robust economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The critical focus now will be on the technical support around 1.1420, as a breach could indicate further downside for the euro.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1684 (median across 12 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Danske Bank at the lower end (1.1100). Today's pricing is significantly below the median target, indicating a bearish sentiment towards the euro which aligns closely with the recent shifts in market dynamics.
How firms align
Scotiabank aligns with the bearish view, expecting 1.1734 by March 2026, while RBC has a target of 1.1600, indicating a cautious but relatively more optimistic perspective. Their strategies suggest growing concerns regarding eurozone economic health, which may also influence their pricing models, specifically in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from BNPP and Scotiabank reflect a bearish adjustment in their projections, indicating around a 1.1600-1.1734 range for March 2026. This adjustment showcases a trend of increasing skepticism regarding the euro’s strength against the dollar. See further insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-21.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1446, three-week lows illustrate persistent USD strength.
- 02Monitor for a break below 1.1420 as it may lead to further losses for EUR.
- 03March 2026 consensus target remains at 1.1684 despite current weakness.
Market implications
Traders should watch the key 1.1420 support level closely; a break here could indicate a more pronounced Euro selling pressure. The next pivotal macro event is the upcoming ECB meeting, which could influence EUR fortunes as well.
Risks to this view
A significant reversal of this bearish sentiment would require a robust shift in economic data from the Eurozone, particularly around inflation or growth indicators, that could bolster the euro against the dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Morning briefing: EUR/USD faces downward pressure toward 1.1400
EUR/USD technical breakdown below intermediate support levels suggests USD strength is testing structural resistance; watch for break below 1.1400 as potential confirmation of deeper downtrend.
EUR/USD: Catching the 220 pip move lower and hitting the 2R target
Technical breakdown in EUR/USD confirms downside momentum; watch for support hold near 1.05 to assess whether move has legs.
Euro declines as US Dollar recovers recent losses amid hawkish Fed tone
Fed hawkish signals support USD recovery; EUR/USD correction likely continues absent ECB policy divergence clarification.