Morning briefing: EUR/USD faces downward pressure toward 1.1400
The EUR/USD is currently under downward pressure, recently quoted at 1.1446, as market sentiment leans bearish, potentially paving the way for a move towards the critical 1.1400 support level. Factors influencing this trend could include a diverging monetary policy outlook between the Fed and the ECB, with the dollar drawing strength from recent data suggesting a resilient U.S. economy. The headline from FXStreet highlights this bearish trend, but we should consider the broader consensus targets as investors position for the upcoming ECB meetings and potential shifts in rate expectations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.1684 (median across 12 firms), indicating significant room for appreciation from the current spot price. Within this consensus, Morgan Stanley is positioned at the upper end, forecasting 1.2000 for March 2026, while Standard Chartered is at the lower end with a target of 1.1400.
How firms align
Standard Chartered's target aligns directly with the bearish outlook suggested in the headline, expecting the pair to test the 1.1400 level by March 2026. Conversely, Societe Generale anticipates a more optimistic path with a target of 1.1700 for the same period, illustrating a divergence among firms regarding near-term price action. For further insights, see our reports on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path and /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-21.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from BNP Paribas and Scotiabank highlight a cautious approach, with March targets ranging around 1.1600 and 1.1734, respectively. These adjustments underscore the current uncertainty surrounding Eurozone economic stability, which is key in influencing the EUR/USD trajectory.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1446 faces pressure, potential move to 1.1400 looms.
- 02Monetary policy divergence between Fed and ECB remains a critical factor.
- 03Watch for ECB communications; rates may pivot based on economic data.
- 04Bearish sentiment growing; volatility may increase around upcoming economic releases.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1400 level closely; a breach could trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, ECB meetings and U.S. economic data releases could catalyze volatility in the pair; our consensus target is notably above current levels at 1.1684.
Risks to this view
A shift in stance from the ECB towards tightening could reverse the bearish outlook. If inflation pressures prompt a rate hike sooner than expected, this could lead to a rebound in EUR/USD, pushing prices above the 1.1500 mark.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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