Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The latest weekly forex forecast highlights significant movements in the EUR/USD, which closed at 1.1419. Our consensus targets suggest a median projection of 1.1583 by December 2026, showing potential for appreciation from current levels amid varied outlooks among major institutions. The discrepancy among forecasts indicates differing views on ECB policy effectiveness and global economic stability.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1583 (median across firms), with Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank at the upper bounds (both 1.2000) and Danske Bank at the lower end (1.1100). This spread indicates a moderate bullish sentiment, suggesting that while some firms anticipate a strong recovery, others remain cautious about near-term gains.
How firms align
Goldman aligns on a bullish note with a March target of 1.1800, similar to JPMorgan and BofA, who also project 1.1700 for March, as detailed in our internal reports. In contrast, firms like Danske Bank are forecasting a more conservative view, which reflects significant uncertainty in market conditions.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions illustrate a general upward trend, with Bank of America and UOB adjusting their March targets to 1.1700, signaling renewed confidence in the Euro. For more insights, see /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1419, below our consensus target of 1.1583.
- 02Major firms show a mix of bullish and bearish views, indicative of market uncertainty.
- 03Rising targets from BofA and UOB could signal a shift in sentiment if confirmed by upcoming data releases.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the upcoming ECB meetings for policy cues, especially with the EUR/USD consensus at 1.1583. A push beyond 1.1700 may reinforce bullish momentum, while a failure could lead to retests of recent lows.
Risks to this view
A shift in eurozone economic data or a hawkish pivot from the Fed could invalidate this bullish outlook on the EUR/USD. Additionally, geopolitical tensions that disrupt trade and investment flows are major risks.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range tests with upside bias against US Dollar – ING
ING sees EUR/USD testing range highs with upside bias, suggesting near-term support for euro strength against dollar.
Euro: Range phase after failed upside break against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD rejection at resistance suggests sellers controlled upper bound; range-bound outlook implies limited directional conviction until next breakout catalyst.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flatlines below 1.1550, while staying bearish under 100-day SMA
EUR/USD technical breakdown below 100-day SMA signals continued downside bias; resistance at 1.1550 remains key level for mean reversion traders.
Morning briefing: EUR/USD could decline towards 1.1500 and lower
Technical breakdown below key support at 1.1500 would confirm EUR/USD weakness and shift near-term momentum decisively USD-positive.
Bank desks on this topic
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Rates Spark: The fiscal number can eclipse CPI
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Week of August 13, 2026
Spot EUR/USD at 1.1535 sits 0.56% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, with a 0.14-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the dollar path.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1525, Median Target 1.16 — Week of August 12, 2026
EUR/USD spot at 1.1525 sits 0.65% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.14 spread separating Nordea's 1.24 bull case from Citi's 1.10 bear.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1541, Median Target 1.16 — Week of August 11, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 0.51% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.14 dispersion range flagging unusually wide disagreement on the pair's year-end destination.