Euro: Range tests with upside bias against US Dollar – ING
The euro is showing an upside bias against the US dollar, as indicated by recent assessments from ING. This perspective aligns with a broader consensus that anticipates a strengthening of the euro, with median targets suggesting movement towards the 1.17 level in the near term. Recent economic data and ECB monetary policy expectations are providing a bolster to the euro's prospects, making this a critical period for traders to monitor.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and TMG at the lower (1.1448). ING's outlook is in line with the consensus, reinforcing the bullish sentiment as they also target 1.1700 for March 2026.
How firms align
Firms such as Deutsche Bank and MUFG are particularly optimistic, each targeting 1.1800 for March 2026. This aligns closely with ING's stance, suggesting a collective acknowledgment of a potential euro rally. Conversely, TMG and BofA remain more conservative, with lower projections indicating a more cautious approach compared to the bullish view outlined by ING. For more insights, refer to our reports on euro-dollar divergences.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a consensus shift towards an increasingly positive outlook for the euro, with Deutsche Bank raising its target to 1.1800. Our recent analysis, as detailed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-13, highlights key drivers for the euro’s movement against the dollar, emphasizing the divergence in sentiment among major players.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD targets have shifted upward, with the median now at 1.1700.
- 02Traders should focus on key economic indicators from the Eurozone.
- 03A breach above 1.1500 could signal further upward momentum.
- 04Investor sentiment is leaning bullish on the euro due to ECB policy.
Market implications
Looking ahead, the key level to watch for EUR/USD is the 1.1500 mark, which would signal a stronger bullish trend if breached. Also, upcoming ECB meetings may provide further insights into rate paths, possibly influencing the euro's trajectory toward our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A significant reversal could occur if U.S. economic data unexpectedly strengthens or if ECB members signal a more hawkish stance than currently anticipated. Such developments could quickly shift market sentiment towards a stronger dollar, invalidating the current bullish outlook for the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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