Euro: Rebound eyes key resistance band against US Dollar – UOB
The euro is attempting a rebound against the US dollar, positioning itself at 1.1419 as it approaches a significant resistance zone. This movement reflects a broader bullish sentiment towards the euro, coinciding with elevated expectations for future rate hikes by the European Central Bank. Market watchers should monitor whether this rebound leads to a sustained breakout or if it succumbs to selling pressure at current levels, reinforcing the importance of the upcoming economic data releases.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1550 (median across 10 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and MUFG at the lower (1.1800). This sentiment is echoed in the recent UOB commentary, which suggests a potentially bullish trajectory as the euro tests its key resistance levels.
How firms align
Several firms align closely with the bullish outlook on the euro. Notably, Commerzbank projects a March 2026 target of 1.1900, while Deutsche Bank aligns at 1.1800. Conversely, BofA holds a more cautious stance with a target of only 1.1700, indicating a divergence from the broader bullish sentiment. For detailed perspectives, see our /research/commerzbank and /research/bofa reports.
What the data shows
Recent revisions, particularly from BofA and ING, support the bullish outlook, with both firms maintaining a March target of 1.1700. For further context, refer to /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-02, which outlines the evolving consensus around the euro's trajectory.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD tests resistance near 1.1500; breakthrough could signal further gains.
- 02Watch for breakout confirmation or signs of reversal in the coming sessions.
- 03Key economic releases ahead could shift market sentiment and volatility.
- 04Bullish momentum may sustain if euro holds above 1.1400 support.
Market implications
Traders should keep a close eye on any resistance break at 1.1500, with our consensus target of 1.1550 adding weight to the bullish narrative. Upcoming economic data this week will be crucial in determining further EUR/USD directional bias.
Risks to this view
A failure to sustain above the 1.1400 support level, combined with adverse economic data from the eurozone, would challenge this bullish view and could provoke a sharp reversal in sentiment towards the EUR/USD pair.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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