On this page · 4 sections▾
AUD/USD traded at 0.7026 as of July 30, 2026 — effectively at the Dec-26 cross-firm median of 0.70 drawn from the full AUD/USD bank forecast table — yet the 0.10 spread between the most bullish and most bearish desks makes this one of the wider dispersion regimes in G10 this quarter.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (July 30, 2026): 0.7026
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median (24 firms): 0.70
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +0.37% — spot is in line with consensus
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Société Générale | 0.67 | bullish |
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| UOB | 0.6835 | neutral |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Danske Bank | 0.69 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| HSBC | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| Nomura | 0.72 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
What does the RBA–Fed rate gap imply for AUD/USD through year-end?
The central tension in the AUD/USD outlook is whether the Reserve Bank of Australia can sustain a policy rate that keeps the bilateral spread with the Fed from compressing further. The bullish camp — Goldman Sachs, MUFG, HSBC, and Bank of America, all targeting 0.70 — effectively price a stable or modestly narrowing spread regime, with the Fed on a gradual easing path and the RBA moving later and more cautiously. That configuration leaves AUD/USD roughly anchored at current levels.
The more aggressive bulls sit higher on the curve. Nomura targets 0.72, pricing roughly 7.5% AUD appreciation from the spot level that desk used as its reference. ING targets 0.73, implying the RBA holds longer than the Fed eases, widening the carry advantage. Scotiabank sits at the top of the 24-firm range at 0.75, a level that would require either a materially more hawkish RBA than the market currently prices or a sharper Fed pivot — or both.
On the other side, Citi is the only desk in the published table with an explicit bearish stance and a sub-0.70 target of 0.67, implying the spread compresses in the dollar's favour — consistent with a view that the RBA cuts before the Fed does, or that risk appetite deteriorates enough to overwhelm any carry support. UOB targets 0.6835 with a neutral stance, sitting in the lower quartile of the distribution.
How much of the AUD/USD outlook depends on China and iron ore?
Australia's commodity export mix — iron ore above all, but also LNG and coal — gives AUD/USD a beta to Chinese industrial demand that no rate-spread model fully captures. Iron ore spot prices remain a live input: a sustained move below the cost-support band historically drags AUD/USD 2–4 figures even when the rate differential is stable.
The desks with the widest spread between their reference spot and their year-end target — Bank of America at roughly 9.4% appreciation from its reference level, Nomura at roughly 7.5% — are implicitly pricing a China demand recovery that lifts bulk commodity prices through H2 2026. That is the single largest source of forecast dispersion in this consensus: desks that embed a China re-acceleration scenario land at 0.72–0.75; desks that treat Chinese steel demand as structurally impaired cluster at 0.67–0.69.
Société Générale presents an instructive case: it carries a bullish stance yet targets only 0.67, which is below spot. That apparent contradiction reflects the desk's reference spot of 0.65 — from that entry point, 0.67 is a 3.1% gain. The stance label is relative to the desk's own reference, not to current spot. Readers comparing targets across firms need to hold that distinction clearly.
Where is dispersion widest, and what does it signal?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Mizuho · Citi · Société Générale · JPMorgan +20 more
24 firms aggregated · as of 2026-07-30 16:05 UTC
At 0.10 between Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling and Mizuho's 0.65 floor, the AUD/USD consensus range is wide relative to most G10 pairs at equivalent forecast horizons. The interquartile range is tighter — the cluster of desks at 0.69–0.72 suggests a modal view of modest AUD appreciation — but the tail targets carry real weight given the macro scenarios they embed.
The neutral stances from ING, Rabobank, Scotiabank, TMGM, and Danske Bank are notable: several of these desks hold above-consensus targets while declining to characterise the move as directionally high-conviction. That posture — target above spot, stance neutral — typically reflects uncertainty about timing rather than direction. With spot already at the median, the burden of proof for a sustained break above 0.72 rests on either a China demand catalyst or a Fed pivot that outruns current pricing.
No fresh macro data crossed the tape for this pair in the seven days to July 30, leaving the consensus distribution unchanged from the prior week.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the AUD/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The cross-firm median across 24 banks is 0.70, essentially at current spot of 0.7026 — a gap of just 0.37%.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD target?
Scotiabank holds the top target at 0.75, implying roughly 6.7% upside from current spot.
Which bank is most bearish on AUD/USD?
Mizuho carries the lowest target in the 24-firm consensus at 0.65, implying approximately 7.5% downside from current spot levels.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets across all 24 firms — stands at 0.10, a range that reflects genuine disagreement on both the RBA–Fed policy path and the China commodity demand outlook.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the rationale behind the consensus-high 0.75 target and the rate-spread assumptions that underpin it.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
Tmgm →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Danskebank →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Continue tracking AUD/USD
More from AUD/USD
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7041, Week of August 6, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7041, a fraction above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.70, with a 0.10 spread separating Scotiabank's 0.75 from Mizuho's 0.65.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7048 vs 0.70 Median Target, Week of August 5, 2026
AUD/USD trades 0.69% above the 24-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.70, with a 0.10 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the RBA-Fed path.
- AUD/USD
RBA Rate Decision Preview — August 11, 2026: Street Targets 0.70
AUD/USD trades at 0.7033, just 0.47% above the 24-firm Dec-26 consensus of 0.70, leaving the pair broadly in line with street expectations ahead of the RBA.
Share