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AUD/USD spot of 0.7031 sits effectively on top of the full AUD/USD bank forecast table median Dec-26 consensus of 0.70, with 24 contributing desks spread across a 0.10 range — the widest dispersion in the G10 commodity bloc this cycle.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 1, 2026): 0.7031
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 0.70
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10 (0.65–0.75)
- Gap vs spot: +0.44% — spot is in line with consensus
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 0.67 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.6835 | neutral |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Danske Bank | 0.69 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| HSBC | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| Nomura | 0.72 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
What Is the RBA–Fed Rate Gap Pricing Into AUD/USD?
The central tension for AUD/USD through year-end is the relative pace of easing between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve. The RBA entered 2026 cutting later and more cautiously than the Fed, leaving the cash rate spread narrower than historical norms but still providing modest AUD carry support. Desks clustered around the 0.70–0.73 range — ING at 0.73, Nomura and Rabobank at 0.72 — are pricing a scenario where the Fed cuts more aggressively than the RBA through H2, compressing the rate differential in AUD's favour. Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and MUFG converge at 0.70, implying the spread stays roughly stable and the pair ends the year near current levels. The bearish tail — Citi at 0.65 via Mizuho — reflects a scenario where the RBA is forced to accelerate cuts in response to a deteriorating domestic labour market, eroding carry and pushing the pair back toward mid-cycle lows. The rate-spread regime each desk is pricing is the primary source of the 0.10 dispersion, not spot-level disagreement per se.
How Much Does China and Iron Ore Beta Explain the Outlier Positions?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Mizuho · Citi · Société Générale · JPMorgan +20 more
24 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-01 16:04 UTC
AUD/USD retains a well-documented beta to Chinese growth proxies and iron ore pricing. Scotiabank's 0.75 target — the highest in the 24-firm panel — is the clearest expression of a China re-acceleration thesis: if Beijing's stimulus measures translate into sustained fixed-asset investment, iron ore demand holds above current spot levels and AUD receives a terms-of-trade lift that the rate-spread narrative alone cannot deliver. That is a meaningful call given iron ore has spent much of 2025–26 under pressure from oversupply and weaker-than-expected Chinese property sector demand. On the other side, UOB at 0.6835 and TMGM at 0.69 embed a softer China trajectory, treating commodity beta as a headwind rather than a tailwind. Société Générale presents the most internally complex position in the table: a 0.67 target paired with a bullish stance, which reflects a view that AUD/USD will recover from a near-term dip below current spot before settling at year-end levels still below the consensus median — a path-dependent call rather than a simple directional one. Commerzbank at 0.71 bullish sits in the moderate-recovery camp, treating China risk as manageable but not transformative.
Where Is Dispersion Widest and What Does It Signal?
At 0.10 between Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling and Mizuho's 0.65 floor, the spread across all 24 firms is unusually wide for a pair trading within 0.44% of the consensus midpoint. That combination — tight spot-to-consensus gap, wide firm-to-firm range — is characteristic of a market where the central tendency is well-anchored but the tail scenarios carry genuine probability weight. The 0.70 cluster (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, MUFG) functions as the consensus gravity point, but the distribution is not symmetric: the bullish tail extends 0.05 above spot while the bearish tail extends roughly the same distance below. Desks with explicit China re-rating views occupy the upper quartile; those pricing RBA easing acceleration or commodity softness occupy the lower. The absence of fresh catalyst news in the past seven days means the current dispersion reflects structural disagreement rather than a reaction to a specific data print — which makes the next RBA decision and any Chinese PMI release the clearest near-term triggers for consensus revision.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 24 contributing firms is 0.70, with spot at 0.7031 — a gap of just 0.44%, placing the pair in line with consensus as of August 1, 2026.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD forecast?
Scotiabank carries the top target at 0.75, implying roughly 6.7% upside from the 0.70 consensus midpoint and reflecting a constructive view on China demand and commodity terms of trade.
Which bank is most bearish on AUD/USD?
Mizuho holds the lowest target in the 24-firm panel at 0.65, pricing a scenario of RBA easing acceleration and sustained commodity softness that would push the pair to multi-year lows by year-end.
How wide is the disagreement across bank forecasts?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets across all 24 firms — stands at 0.10, an unusually wide range for a pair trading so close to the consensus median.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 0.75 year-end target and its China and commodity assumptions.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Tmgm →
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Rabobank →
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ING →
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Nomura →
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Bank of America →
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Uob →
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Societe Generale →
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Citi →
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MUFG →
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Scotiabank →
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HSBC →
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Danskebank →
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Goldman Sachs →
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