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USD/JPY sits at 153.5335, roughly 1.01% above the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0 — consult the full USD/JPY bank forecast table for the complete picture across all 23 contributing desks. With the Bank of Japan rate decision due at 03:00 UTC on September 18, 2026 and the calendar consensus pencilling in a 25bp hike to 1.25%, the pair enters the event with spot running above consensus and the aggregate bias tilted bearish on USD/JPY.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 153.5335
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 23 firms): 152.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 25.5 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −1.01% (spot above target)
- Most bullish on USD/JPY — Nomura: 165.5
- Most bearish on USD/JPY — Scotiabank: 140.0
Where Do the 23 Desks Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 140.0 | bearish |
| Scotiabank | 140.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 142.0 | bearish |
| Rabobank | 145.0 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 149.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 152.0 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 152.0 | bearish |
| ING | 152.0 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank | 158.65 | bearish |
| UBS | 160.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 160.0 | bearish |
| UOB | 160.55 | neutral |
| Mizuho | 162.0 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 165.0 | bearish |
What Does the Consensus Actually Tell You Ahead of September 18?
The aggregate read is bearish on USD/JPY — meaning the median desk expects the pair to drift lower from current spot by year-end — but the 25.5-point dispersion between the highest published target (165.5, Nomura) and the lowest (140.0, Morgan Stanley and Scotiabank) is wide enough to render the median almost decorative as a trading signal. That spread reflects genuine macro disagreement: whether the BoJ can sustain a tightening cycle without triggering a domestic growth shock, and whether the Fed's own trajectory leaves enough rate-differential compression to drive sustained yen appreciation.
Of the 14 most recently updated desks shown here, the majority carry a bearish USD/JPY stance — J.P. Morgan at 142.0, Bank of America at 149.0, MUFG and Standard Chartered both at 152.0, and Goldman Sachs at 165.0 all carry bearish flags despite Goldman's target sitting well above spot. That combination — a high target paired with a bearish stance — is internally consistent only if Goldman's baseline path involves a near-term USD/JPY overshoot before a year-end reversal. Mizuho is the lone explicitly bullish desk in this subset, targeting 162.0 and citing structural yen weakness that persisted even after coordinated intervention pushed the pair toward 155 before a recovery to the 157–158 range.
How Does the Reaction Map Look for a Hold Versus a Hike?
The calendar consensus estimate is 1.25% — a 25bp hike from the current 1.00% policy rate. Two scenarios dominate the pre-event positioning discussion.
Scenario A — Hike delivered (1.25%): A hike in line with the calendar estimate is largely priced, but execution matters. A hawkish statement accompanying the move — signalling further tightening optionality — would apply downward pressure on USD/JPY consistent with the bearish consensus bias. From spot at 153.53, the cluster of targets around 140–152 (JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, BofA, MUFG, StanChart, ING) would come into closer reach on an accelerated yen-positive narrative. Desks with targets above spot — UBS at 160.0, SG at 160.0, UOB at 160.55, Mizuho at 162.0, Goldman at 165.0 — would face the sharpest challenge to their year-end path if the BoJ signals a steeper tightening trajectory than those models embed.
Scenario B — Hold (1.00%): An unexpected hold would likely read as yen-negative in the near term, pushing USD/JPY back toward and potentially through the upper end of the dispersion range. The bullish outlier at 165.5 (Nomura, not in the updated table but anchoring the top of the 23-firm dispersion) would gain credibility. Desks already positioned for a lower USD/JPY — particularly the 140-handle calls from Morgan Stanley and Scotiabank — would face the largest mark-to-market gap if a hold triggers a yen selloff. The 25.5-point dispersion implies the market has not converged on a single macro regime, and a hold would likely widen that spread further as desks revise BoJ terminal rate assumptions.
Neither scenario is predicted here; the framing is against published targets only.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does USD/JPY spot stand relative to the bank consensus?
Spot at 153.5335 is 1.01% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, meaning the pair is trading well above where the aggregate of contributing desks expects it to finish the year.
How wide is the disagreement across bank forecasts?
The dispersion between the highest and lowest published Dec-26 targets across all 23 firms is 25.5 points — from 140.0 at the low end to 165.5 at the high end — one of the wider spreads in the G10 space and a direct reflection of unresolved uncertainty around BoJ policy sequencing.
Which desk carries the most bullish USD/JPY target?
Nomura holds the highest target in the 23-firm consensus at 165.5, implying further yen depreciation from current spot. Mizuho, at 162.0 among the recently updated desks, is the most bullish in the reported table and explicitly flags structural JPY weakness as the driver.
Which desk is most bearish on USD/JPY into year-end?
Scotiabank and Morgan Stanley share the lowest published target at 140.0, roughly 8.8% below current spot — a move that would require either a materially more aggressive BoJ tightening path or a significant shift in US rate expectations, or both.
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→ See the full J.P. Morgan FX outlook for the desk's detailed USD/JPY scenario analysis and rate-differential framework heading into the September 18 decision.
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