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USD/JPY spot sits at 153.5335 as of the week of September 13, 2026 — 1.01% above the cross-firm median December 2026 target of 152.0 drawn from the full USD/JPY bank forecast table. Across 23 contributing desks, the range spans 25.5 points, one of the widest dispersions in the G10 complex.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 153.5335
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 152.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 25.5 points
- Gap vs spot: spot is 1.01% above consensus — tape is well above the median target, implying a bearish consensus lean
- Most bullish firm: Nomura at 165.5
- Most bearish firms: Scotiabank and Morgan Stanley both at 140.0
Where the 14 Most Active Desks Stand
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 140.0 | bearish |
| Scotiabank | 140.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 142.0 | bearish |
| Rabobank | 145.0 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 149.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 152.0 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 152.0 | bearish |
| ING | 152.0 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank | 158.65 | bearish |
| UBS | 160.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 160.0 | bearish |
| UOB | 160.55 | neutral |
| Mizuho | 162.0 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 165.0 | bearish |
Why Does the Rate-Spread Regime Define This Trade?
Each firm's Q4 2026 USD/JPY target back-solved to an implied US − JP 10y spread via covered-interest-parity. Anchored at the observed 10y rates on 2026-09-13.
Source: Tmgm · Société Générale · RBC · Uob +19 more
23 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-13 16:07 UTC
The USD/JPY rate is, at its core, a proxy for the US 10-year Treasury yield minus the JGB equivalent. The BoJ has been on a cautious normalisation path throughout 2026, but the pace of hikes remains the central variable. Desks that price in a BoJ policy rate approaching 1.0–1.25% by year-end — accompanied by a US 10-year that has drifted lower as the Fed holds or cuts — arrive at targets in the 140–152 range. That cohort includes J.P. Morgan at 142.0, Morgan Stanley at 140.0, and Bank of America at 149.0.
At the other end, desks that see the BoJ moving more gradually — or that price US yields staying elevated on fiscal and term-premium grounds — land in the 160–165 zone. Goldman Sachs targets 165.0 with a bearish USD/JPY stance, a combination that reflects a view of near-term yen weakness before any meaningful reversal. Mizuho at 162.0 is the only desk in this table explicitly flagged bullish on the pair, citing structural JPY weakness that persists even after intervention episodes pushed the rate briefly toward 155 before a recovery to the 157–158 area.
The implied rate-spread regime embedded in the 152.0 median is roughly a 350–375 basis point US-Japan 10-year differential — narrower than the peaks seen in 2024 but still historically wide. Desks below 145 are effectively pricing a differential compression to 250–300 bps, which requires either a faster BoJ or a materially lower US 10-year, or both.
Where Is Dispersion Widest, and What Does It Signal?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Morgan Stanley · Scotiabank · JPMorgan · HSBC +19 more
23 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-13 16:07 UTC
At 25.5 points, the max-to-min spread across all 23 firms is unusually large for a G10 pair at this point in a rate cycle. The top target, Nomura at 165.5, sits 25.5 points above Scotiabank and Morgan Stanley at 140.0. That gap is not noise — it reflects genuine disagreement on three variables simultaneously: the terminal BoJ rate, the US 10-year trajectory, and the probability and effectiveness of MoF intervention.
Intervention thresholds remain relevant. Japanese authorities have historically shown discomfort with sustained moves above 155–160. The Mizuho narrative explicitly references coordinated US-Japan intervention that pushed the pair toward 155, followed by a recovery — a pattern that suggests intervention can slow but not sustainably reverse the move without a fundamental rate-spread shift. Desks with targets above 160, including UBS at 160.0 and Société Générale at 160.0, are effectively pricing intervention risk as a dampener rather than a ceiling.
The cluster of three desks — MUFG, Standard Chartered, and ING — all at exactly 152.0 anchors the median and suggests that a meaningful subset of the market sees the pair gravitating back toward current spot with limited further move in either direction by December.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/JPY consensus target for December 2026?
The cross-firm median target across 23 contributing desks is 152.0, approximately 1.01% below the current spot of 153.5335.
Which firm has the highest USD/JPY target and which has the lowest?
Nomura holds the highest target at 165.5; Scotiabank and Morgan Stanley share the lowest at 140.0, producing a 25.5-point dispersion across the full 23-firm panel.
Is the overall consensus bullish or bearish on USD/JPY heading into year-end?
The consensus lean is bearish — spot is well above the median target, meaning the average desk expects the pair to fall from current levels by December 2026.
At what level does intervention risk become a live concern?
Based on prior MoF action and desk commentary, the 155–160 zone is where intervention risk has historically been most acute; several desks with targets above 160 treat that zone as a friction point rather than a hard ceiling.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook for the desk's 165.0 year-end target and the rate-spread assumptions underpinning it.
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Firms covered in this article
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