Redefining the treasury through automation
The desk perceives that treasuries are evolving toward a more strategic role within corporate frameworks by embracing automation, particularly in FX management. Per the full note from Nordea Insights, a significant shift is underway, as nearly all large corporate treasuries in the Nordic region aim to integrate closer with business strategies. This trend highlights an urgent need for digitalization, and as treasuries anticipate increased involvement in 2025, the process remains in its infancy with only slight current engagement reported. Consequently, market responses and currency dynamics are likely to be influenced as these treasuries seek relevant tools to modernize their operations, with a focus on managing risks and optimizing working capital.
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the push for FX automation by corporate treasuries is not merely an operational enhancement but a critical strategic move that will redefine their role in global financial management. According to Johan Trocmé from Nordea, this move is vital if treasuries want to show that they can contribute meaningfully to digitalizing the overall business framework. The current survey data suggests that while treasuries express a desire for strategic partnership, they remain only minimally involved in active decision-making about digitalization.
Supporting this narrative, Trocmé indicates that most treasuries hope to expand their roles significantly by 2025, with aspirations to manage more comprehensive responsibilities including working capital and risk assessments. This vision portrays a clear trajectory towards a central role in business operations, which will undoubtedly shape future FX strategies as these entities adapt to evolving market demands.
Where it sits in our coverage
Currently, our consensus target for EUR/USD is set at 1.2000 for December 2026, reflecting a broad range from various firms including hsbc at 1.1700 and barclays at 1.2100.
This perspective aligns fairly closely with the cross-firm consensus, given that the desk's outlook sits at the median of the target range provided by several institutions. Notably, while some firms maintain highly optimistic targets, others demonstrate caution, reflecting mixed sentiments across the board about the Euro’s performance against USD going forward.
How other firms see it
Firms such as mizuho and commerzbank are more upbeat on the Euro, projecting values of 1.1800 and 1.2200 respectively by March 2026, indicating a belief in potential upward movement. Contrarily, firms like citi and anz project more conservative targets, suggesting an underlying concern regarding the sustainability of recent gains.
Relevant to these dynamics is the anticipated path of monetary policy by the ECB, which is expected to play a pivotal role in guiding EUR/USD movements. Additionally, the interconnectedness between GBP/USD trends and Bank of England monetary strategies will also contribute to the overall market sentiment in FX trading.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Treasuries are striving to become strategic partners through FX automation.
- 02Survey data shows treasuries currently engage only slightly in digital strategies.
- 03Increased treasury involvement in corporate decision-making expected by 2025.
- 04Consensus targets for EUR/USD suggest cautious optimism amidst varying firm outlooks.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on how treasuries' increasing involvement in FX automation plays out, especially in relation to the EUR/USD pair which is currently anticipating a target of 1.2000 by December 2026. Adjustments in corporate risk management strategies could affect broader market sentiment and positioning in upcoming quarters.
Risks to this view
A significant reversal could occur if economic indicators show a deterioration in the recovery of corporate health, reversing the motivation for treasuries to adopt automated solutions in FX management. Additionally, unexpected shifts in central bank policies or geopolitical developments could negate the projected improvements in treasury functions.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bearish | 1.1200 |
ANZ | Bearish | 1.1400 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1565 |
Corporate insights Redefining the treasury through automation 18-03-2021 Automation is a strategic opportunity for finance and treasury departments to move closer to the business in their companies and drive innovation. FX automation is one clear place to start. Treasury and finance departments want a seat at the strategy table of their businesses.
That’s been a key finding in Nordea’s annual research report surveying finance and treasury departments across the Nordics, according to Johan Trocmé , Director of Nordea Thematics. “Nearly all large corporate treasuries here in the Nordic region want to be a strategic partner to the business,” says Trocmé, who spearheads the annual report. “One way to earn that position is to show they have a role to play in how to digitalise the business.” In their latest survey , Trocmé and his team decided to see how far Nordic treasuries have come on their journey to the strategy table. It turns out they still have a way to go. Trocmé et al. asked roughly 300 respondents from Nordic and international large corporates if the treasury is involved in the digitalisation of the business already today.
The answer: yes, but only slightly. When asked whether the treasury or finance function is seen as a strategic partner for how to digitalise the business, the answer is also yes, but only by the CFO and not really anyone else. “That journey to become a strategic partner to the business and get closer to the business remains ahead of the treasuries. They are not quite there,” Trocmé says.
An urgent need for digitalisation Trocmé recently presented the survey’s findings on a Nordea webinar that took a deep dive into the theme of FX automation. He noted that when asked about their level of involvement in different areas of the business in 2025, treasuries expect to be more involved in everything across the board, from managing working capital to risk analysis as well as being a strategic partner for management. “Without a big capacity addition in the treasuries, in order to be more involved in everything, they will need to find that capacity addition somewhere else, and the only place they’re going to find it is by automating. So here there is a pretty urgent need for digitalisation in order to be able to fulfil this ambition,” Trocmé says.
Yet little has happened in the way of automation over the last two years, the survey found. While treasuries still expect the level of automation to increase significantly by 2025, their level of ambition has dropped significantly since 2018. “It seems we have a pattern here that there have been a number of pilot projects and initiatives to try and automate, where there have been perhaps greater challenges than anticipated to begin with and where the complexity has forced a reality reconnect for the treasuries here,” Trocmé says. FX among the top automation priorities Trocmé did note that FX is among the top three areas when it comes to automation expectations among those surveyed.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Related news on this pair
Euro weakens against US Dollar amid Middle East tensions
Risk-off flows into USD safe-haven assets likely to persist if Middle East escalation prevents ECB rate-cut momentum.
Euro: Recovery stalls near 1.1550 resistance against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD rejection at 1.1550 suggests sellers remain active; watch for fresh lows if support breaks.