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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
The desk is anticipating that the recent interim Iran deal could substantially influence energy prices and subsequently the EUR/USD exchange rate. Per the full note , the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may alter market dynamics, possibly fostering a move in EUR/USD towards the 1.20 level by year-end. The implications extend to interest rate expectations, particularly regarding the European Central Bank's policy stance as seen in the latest forecasts. With our current spot at 1.1567, which is notably below the Dec-26 consensus target of 1.20, the market is positioned for volatility during this geopolitical shift.
The central thesis posits that the Iran deal's impacts on energy markets will prominently influence the EUR/USD exchange rate in the coming months. Per the full note , the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to increased oil supply, thereby affecting energy prices, which could result in a stronger euro against the dollar.
Current pricing suggests that while oil prices have dipped, they remain susceptible to fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions. The desk notes that the ECB's response to these shifts through potential interest rate hikes could create further support for EUR/USD movements.
Our current consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.20, with a range from 1.1200 to 1.2000. Notable targets among firms include: - deutschebank: Dec-26 at 1.2500 - mufg: Dec-26 at 1.2400 - bofa: Dec-26 at 1.2200
The desk's call aligns closely with the consensus, which is leaning towards higher valuations, particularly toward the upper range of forecasts. Given that our current spot is 1.1567, we find ourselves at a relatively lower end compared to some firms' targets, indicating potential upward momentum as market sentiment evolves.
A number of firms, including deutschebank and jpmorgan, share a bullish sentiment on EUR/USD, supporting potential price increases driven by changing economic conditions and ECB policies. On the other hand, firms like uob are projecting more cautious forecasts, suggesting a more restrained view on euro strength.
Closely observe related moves in the USD/JPY as shifts in Eurozone rates may ripple through to dollar strength against the yen, highlighting cross-currency dynamics in play.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Traders should monitor for movements in energy prices following the Iran deal announcement while keeping an eye on evolving ECB rate expectations. A shift towards a stronger euro could materialize if EUR/USD approaches the 1.20 target, which could trigger further position adjustments amongst institutional traders.
Risks to this view
If the Iran deal fails to stabilize the region or leads to renewed tensions, energy prices—and consequently the EUR/USD rate—could experience significant downward pressure. Additionally, a dovish pivot from the ECB could also reverse bullish sentiment, placing downward constraints on the euro.
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bearish | 1.1000 |
ING | Bullish | 1.1300 |
MUFG | Neutral | 1.1200 |
All 31 desk targets for EUR/USD
Articles Webinar: The Iran deal and what it means for macro and markets 15:30 Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Join ING's economists and strategists for a live webinar on 17 June to discuss what the latest Middle East breakthrough could mean for energy prices, rate expectations and financial markets. Sign up here Carsten Brzeski , Chris Turner , Michiel Tukker and Rebecca Byrne The US and Iran have said they’ve agreed an interim deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and extends a fragile ceasefire. Oil prices have fallen but plenty of questions remain – not least whether a deal can stand the test of time.
Join ING’s economists and strategists for their first thoughts on what a deal could mean for the prospect of interest rate hikes and the broader impact on financial markets. You’ll discover: Why energy prices could go higher again, even with a deal in place Whether the European Central Bank is still on track for a second rate hike this summer If a deal could unlock a move in EUR/USD to 1.20 by year-end Scenarios for swap rates and the ripple effects through bond markets Details Date: Wednesday 17 June Time: 0900 BST/1000 CEST The webinar will last 30 minutes, including a Q&A session at the end. The event will take place online and the waiting room will open 60 minutes ahead of the scheduled start time.
A joining link will be emailed following registration and you will receive a reminder email 10 minutes before the scheduled start time. Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Carsten Brzeski Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski is the Global Head of Macro for ING Research. Previously, he worked at ABN Amro, the Dutch Ministry of Finance and the European Commission. He is a 2019 JFK Memorial Policy Fellow… Chris Turner Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE Chris is Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE.
Together with his team, he provides short and medium-term FX recommendations for ING's corporate and… Michiel Tukker Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist Michiel Tukker is a Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist based in London. Before ING, he worked as a quantitative economist for the Dutch central bank, at BlackRock in its Financial Markets… Rebecca Byrne Deputy Global Head of Editorial and Supervisory Analyst Rebecca Byrne is the Deputy Global Head of Editorial and a Supervisory Analyst based in London. She joined ING in 2018 from The Wall Street Journal, where she was a reporter and editor.
She…
How we cover this story
USD resilience despite US political uncertainty suggests safe-haven demand remains the dominant driver; EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1200 month-range may accelerate if risk sentiment deteriorates.
EUR/USD upside capped by continued dollar cash rotation despite US tech weakness; Treasury correlation reassertion limits euro tactical strength.
EUR/USD breaks below 1.1200 technical level ahead of data events; watch for Eurozone retail sales and US nonfarm payroll reactions.
USD strength contingent on NFP data; break of 102.10 DXY would confirm momentum toward EUR/USD 1.1100 support.
EUR/USD spot sits 2.69% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.145, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD spot sits 2.19% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD spot at 1.1191 sits 2.68% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish despite tape underperformance.
31 investment banks see EUR/USD at 1.1469 by Dec 2026
View the live EUR/USD forecastStanChart |
Danske |
TMGM |
UOB |