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AUD/USD at 0.7033 sits within a rounding error of the 24-firm full AUD/USD bank forecast table median Dec-26 target of 0.70, a gap of just 0.47%. Across the consensus, however, the spread between the most bullish and most bearish year-end calls spans 0.10 — a dispersion wide enough to make the RBA's August 11 decision a meaningful directional catalyst.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 0.7033
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 24 firms): 0.70
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10
- Gap vs consensus: +0.47% (spot above median)
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
Where Do the 24 Desks Stand Heading Into August 11?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 0.67 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.6835 | neutral |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Danske Bank | 0.69 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| HSBC | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Nomura | 0.72 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
What Does the Calendar Estimate Imply for the Rate Path?
The Bloomberg calendar consensus estimate for the Reserve Bank of Australia August 11 decision sits at 4.6%, against a current policy rate of 4.35%. That 25 basis-point gap signals the street is pricing a hike as the base case — a meaningful shift from the easing rhetoric that dominated RBA communications through much of 2025.
The RBA has historically moved in 25bp increments, so a hike to 4.60% would represent a clean single step. A hold at 4.35% would undershoot the calendar consensus by the same margin, and a double-step to 4.85% is not embedded in any published desk scenario reviewed here. The distribution of outcomes the market is effectively pricing is therefore binary: deliver the hike or disappoint with a hold.
For AUD/USD, the rate differential channel matters. A hike that confirms the RBA is tightening while the Federal Reserve remains on hold — or is easing — widens the short-end spread in AUD's favour. The pair's current proximity to the 0.70 consensus median means a policy surprise in either direction would push spot toward one of the distribution's tails rather than simply confirm the central case.
What Is the Reaction Map for AUD/USD Across the Scenario Set?
Scenario 1 — Hike to 4.60% (calendar consensus delivered). Spot at 0.7033 is already 0.47% above the Dec-26 median. A hike that merely confirms the consensus estimate is unlikely to generate sustained topside momentum unless the accompanying statement signals further tightening. In that case, the bullish cluster — UBS at 0.73, ING at 0.73, Nomura at 0.72 — becomes the operative target range. A hawkish hike with forward guidance intact would put 0.72–0.73 in play on a multi-week horizon.
Scenario 2 — Hold at 4.35% (below calendar consensus). A hold would represent a negative surprise against a market priced for 4.60%. The pair would likely reprice toward the lower end of the distribution. Citi at 0.67 and Société Générale at 0.67 mark the bearish anchor; UOB at 0.6835 represents the intermediate support level desks would reference on a dovish hold. Spot would need to fall roughly 3.5% from current levels to reach the 0.6835 UOB target, and approximately 4.7% to reach the 0.67 cluster.
Scenario 3 — Hike with dovish guidance (one-and-done signal). The most nuanced outcome. Initial AUD/USD strength on the rate move could fade quickly if the statement signals the board views 4.60% as a terminal rate. The 0.70 median target — where Bank of America, HSBC, and MUFG all sit — would then act as a gravitational centre, consistent with the neutral implied bias across the full 24-firm consensus.
The 0.10 dispersion between Scotiabank's 0.75 top target and Mizuho's 0.65 floor underscores that the consensus is not a tight cluster — it is a wide distribution with a neutral median. That width means the RBA's communication tone on August 11 carries as much weight as the rate decision itself.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD spot rate ahead of the RBA decision?
AUD/USD trades at 0.7033, approximately 0.47% above the 24-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 0.70.
What rate is the street pricing for the August 11 RBA decision?
The calendar consensus estimate is 4.60%, implying a 25 basis-point hike from the current policy rate of 4.35%.
Which bank has the most bullish AUD/USD year-end target?
Scotiabank carries the highest Dec-26 target in the consensus at 0.75, roughly 6.6% above current spot.
How wide is the disagreement across the 24 desks?
The max-to-min dispersion across all 24 firms is 0.10, spanning from Mizuho's 0.65 floor to Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook for the desk's Dec-26 AUD/USD target and scenario analysis.
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Societe Generale →
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