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AUD/USD sits at 0.7119, effectively in line with the full AUD/USD bank forecast table — the 24-firm Dec-26 median consensus stands at 0.71, a gap of just 0.27%. That apparent calm conceals a 0.08 spread between the most and least constructive desks, leaving the Reserve Bank of Australia decision on September 29 as the clearest near-term trigger for a directional break.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 0.7119
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 24 firms): 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.08
- Gap vs spot: +0.27% (spot above consensus)
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Citi at 0.67
Where Do Bank Desks Stand Ahead of September 29?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| BNP Paribas | 0.68 | bullish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 0.71 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.712 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 0.73 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| Standard Chartered | 0.75 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
The table reflects 14 of 24 firms with recently updated views. The aggregate stance skews constructive: the majority of named desks carry a bullish label on the pair, with neutral the only other designation represented. No desk in the updated set is formally stamped bearish on AUD/USD at current levels, though targets at 0.68 — some 4.5% below spot — from BNP Paribas and J.P. Morgan imply meaningful downside conviction regardless of label.
What Does the RBA Decision Mean for the Pair Relative to Published Targets?
The calendar consensus estimate for the September 29 decision is 4.85%. The RBA's current rate path and any deviation from that estimate will be the primary short-term input for AUD/USD positioning.
Hold scenario. If the RBA holds at the calendar-implied 4.85%, the pair's reaction will depend heavily on the accompanying statement tone. A hold with a hawkish tilt — signalling that further tightening remains on the table — would be supportive of the AUD, pulling spot toward the cluster of 0.72–0.73 targets held by UBS, ING, and Crédit Agricole. A hold with a dovish or data-dependent gloss narrows the distance to the 0.70 targets at Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and MUFG, all of which already sit below spot despite carrying a bullish stance — a combination that suggests those desks see the pair retracing before any year-end recovery.
Cut scenario. A surprise cut would compress the rate differential and likely push AUD/USD toward the lower end of the distribution. The 0.68 targets from BNP Paribas and J.P. Morgan would come into scope. The 0.67 floor from Citi — the most bearish firm across all 24 — would represent an extreme but not irrational destination if a cut is accompanied by guidance suggesting an easing cycle is underway.
Hike scenario. A surprise hike would be the most AUD-positive outcome and the least priced by the street. In that event, Standard Chartered and Scotiabank at 0.75 — the joint top targets across the full 24-firm set — would become the near-term reference points. The 0.08 dispersion across the consensus means that even a modest repricing toward the top of the range represents a significant move in absolute terms.
Which Desks Are the Outliers and Why Does the Dispersion Matter?
At 0.08, the max-to-min spread across 24 firms is wide relative to the pair's current proximity to consensus. Scotiabank at 0.75 and Citi at 0.67 bracket a range that implies the street has not converged on a macro narrative for AUD into year-end. That disagreement is partly a function of differing views on the RBA's terminal rate, partly on China demand assumptions, and partly on where the US dollar settles as the Fed's own cycle matures.
Within the updated 14-firm set, the tension is visible in the target-versus-stance misalignment. BNP Paribas and J.P. Morgan carry targets 4–5% below spot yet are stamped bullish — suggesting those desks see a near-term dip followed by recovery, or that their stance reflects a longer horizon than the Dec-26 target implies. Conversely, Scotiabank holds a neutral stance despite the highest target in the set at 0.75, indicating that desk is not actively adding to the position but sees the level as achievable on the existing trajectory.
The 0.27% gap between spot and the Dec-26 median consensus is the tightest alignment possible without being at-consensus. That proximity means the RBA print on September 29 is a genuine swing factor: a surprise in either direction has the capacity to move the pair outside the current consensus range in a single session.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD spot rate ahead of the RBA decision?
Spot is 0.7119 as of the time of writing, 0.27% above the 24-firm Dec-26 median consensus of 0.71.
What is the street's consensus AUD/USD target for end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 24 firms is 0.71, with a dispersion of 0.08 between the most bullish (Scotiabank, 0.75) and most bearish (Citi, 0.67) published forecasts.
How many banks are in the AUD/USD consensus tracked here?
Twenty-four firms contribute to the consensus. The 14 most recently updated desks are shown in the table above.
What rate does the market expect the RBA to set on September 29?
The calendar consensus estimate for the September 29 decision is 4.85%. Any deviation from that level — or a materially hawkish or dovish statement alongside a hold — is the primary scenario variable for the pair.
→ See the full Standard Chartered FX outlook for the most bullish published Dec-26 target in the updated consensus at 0.75.
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