On this page · 3 sections▾
USD/JPY sits at 157.8255 as of the week of September 23, 2026 — 3.83% above the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0 drawn from the full USD/JPY bank forecast table, with 23 desks spanning a 25.5-point range from 140.0 to 165.5.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 23, 2026): 157.8255
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 152.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 25.5 points
- Gap vs spot: −3.83% (spot well above consensus)
- Most bullish firm: Nomura — target 165.5
- Most bearish firm: Scotiabank and Morgan Stanley — target 140.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 140.0 | bearish |
| Scotiabank | 140.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 142.0 | bearish |
| Rabobank | 145.0 | neutral |
| BNP Paribas | 148.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 152.0 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 152.0 | bearish |
| ING | 152.0 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank | 159.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 160.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 160.0 | bearish |
| UOB | 160.55 | neutral |
| Mizuho | 162.0 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 165.0 | bearish |
Why Does USD/JPY Trade Above Consensus Despite a Bearish Skew?
The dominant factor is the rate-spread regime. The BoJ has moved cautiously through 2026, and even after a series of incremental hikes, the policy rate remains well below levels that would materially compress the US-Japan nominal rate differential. US 10-year yields have held firm — any sustained move above the 4.50% area keeps the carry trade structurally intact and anchors USD/JPY above where most desks modelled it would be by this point in the year.
The consensus bias is unambiguously bearish on USD/JPY — the median Dec-26 target of 152.0 implies a 3.83% decline from current spot. Yet the pair has stayed elevated, which itself is informative: the market is either pricing a slower BoJ normalisation path than the median desk assumed, or is discounting the probability of US yield compression materialising before year-end. The absence of fresh catalyst in the past seven days has left the pair range-bound near 157.83, with no new policy signal from either the Fed or the BoJ to break the stalemate.
Intervention risk is a live variable at these levels. Japanese authorities have historically flagged discomfort with rapid yen depreciation rather than absolute levels, but proximity to the 160.0 area — where multiple desks including UBS and Société Générale place their year-end targets — keeps MoF verbal intervention a plausible near-term tool. A clean break above 160.0 would put the pair within range of Nomura's 165.5 top target and likely accelerate official rhetoric.
Where Is Dispersion Widest, and What Does It Signal?
At 25.5 points, the forecast range is exceptionally wide for a G10 pair over a three-month horizon. The spread between the floor — Morgan Stanley and Scotiabank at 140.0 — and the ceiling — Nomura at 165.5 — reflects genuine model-level disagreement on two variables: the terminal BoJ rate and the trajectory of US real yields.
Desks calling for 140.0–145.0 (Morgan Stanley, Scotiabank, J.P. Morgan at 142.0, Rabobank at 145.0) are pricing a scenario where the BoJ accelerates normalisation toward 1.0% or beyond while the Fed cuts more aggressively than the current strip implies — a combination that would sharply compress the rate differential and unwind yen carry positions. BNP Paribas at 148.0 sits in a similar camp, though its narrative emphasises JPY repatriation flows as a secondary driver.
At the other end, Goldman Sachs at 165.0 and Mizuho at 162.0 — the only desk with an explicit bullish stance in the table — price a world where US yields stay sticky and BoJ hikes remain shallow and well-telegraphed, leaving the carry differential wide enough to sustain current positioning. Deutsche Bank at 159.0 occupies the middle ground, having recently lowered its target from 158.65, suggesting a marginal tilt toward yen recovery without conviction.
The Goldman stance is worth flagging separately: a 165.0 target paired with a bearish label implies the desk expects USD/JPY to fall from spot — but only modestly, and to a level still far above the consensus median. That is a structurally different call from Morgan Stanley's 140.0, even though both are technically bearish on the pair.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/JPY consensus forecast for December 2026?
The cross-firm median target across 23 banks is 152.0, implying a 3.83% decline from the September 23, 2026 spot of 157.8255.
Which bank has the highest USD/JPY target and which has the lowest?
Nomura holds the highest target at 165.5; Morgan Stanley and Scotiabank share the lowest at 140.0 — a 25.5-point spread that reflects deep disagreement on the BoJ normalisation and US yield path.
How many banks are in the USD/JPY consensus panel?
Twenty-three firms contribute to the consensus. The table above shows the 14 most recently updated desks; snapshot statistics — median, dispersion, and gap — are computed across all 23.
At what level does Japanese intervention risk become material for USD/JPY?
Historical MoF action has clustered around periods of sharp, disorderly moves rather than fixed absolute levels, but the 160.0 area — where UBS and Société Générale place their year-end targets — is widely cited as a zone that would intensify verbal intervention and raise the probability of direct market operations.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook for the desk's complete rate-spread assumptions and USD/JPY scenario analysis.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Bnpparibas →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
Mizuho →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Stanchart →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Continue tracking USD/JPY
More from USD/JPY
- USD/JPY
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 157.39, Median Target 152.0 — Week of September 22, 2026
USD/JPY trades 3.55% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
- USD/JPY
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 157.07, Median Target 152 — Week of September 21, 2026
USD/JPY trades at 157.07, roughly 3.3% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ rate path.
- USD/JPY
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 156.89, Dec-26 Median 152.0 — Week of September 20, 2026
USD/JPY trades at 156.89, 3.22% above the 23-firm Dec-26 median of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
Share