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USD/KRW trades at 1342.29 as of the week of November 5, 2026 — roughly 2.73% below the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, per the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Eighteen desks contribute to that median, and with a max-to-min dispersion of 180 points, the range reflects genuine disagreement rather than rounding noise.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Nov 5, 2026): 1342.29
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median (18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −2.73% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| BofA | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Barclays | 1390.0 | bearish |
| TD Securities | 1400.0 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW spot trade below the consensus median?
The 2.73% gap between spot and the Dec-26 median of 1380 reflects two competing forces that have, for now, resolved in the won's favour. First, the Bank of Korea has moved more cautiously on rate cuts than the Fed, compressing the rate differential that had weighed on KRW through much of 2025. When the BoK holds or trims less aggressively than the Fed, the carry penalty on holding won narrows, reducing the mechanical pressure on the pair. Second, Korea's semiconductor export cycle has been a material offset. Memory and logic chip volumes — the dominant line in Korea's trade account — tracked higher through Q3 2026 as AI-infrastructure buildout sustained demand from US and Taiwanese hyperscalers. A stronger trade surplus mechanically supports won through repatriation flows, and exporters have been less aggressive in hedging forward dollar receivables when spot is already elevated relative to their budget rates.
China beta complicates the picture. Korea's export exposure to China — still roughly 20% of total goods exports — means any deterioration in Chinese domestic demand or a renewed property-sector stress episode transmits quickly into KRW. The current spot level implies the market is not pricing a China shock, but the asymmetry is real: a negative China catalyst would compress the gap between spot and consensus far faster than any incremental BoK-Fed differential move.
Which banks are the outliers, and what regime does each price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-11-05 11:04 UTC
The 180-point dispersion is the most informative single statistic in this consensus. It is not noise — it maps to distinct macro regimes.
Citi sits alone at 1460, a full 80 points above the next-highest target. That call prices a scenario where the Fed pauses rate cuts earlier than expected — or reverses — while the BoK continues easing to support a domestic economy still carrying elevated household debt. In that regime, the rate differential widens again in the dollar's favour, and China-linked risk-off compounds KRW weakness. Citi's target also implies limited intervention appetite from Korean authorities, who have historically defended the pair in the 1380–1420 band but whose capacity to sustain that is finite.
At the other end, StanChart at 1280 prices the most constructive outcome for the won: a Fed that cuts more aggressively than the dot plot currently suggests, a semiconductor upcycle that sustains Korea's current account surplus into year-end, and a China stimulus impulse that lifts regional EM sentiment. That combination would push USD/KRW below current spot, implying StanChart sees further won appreciation from here.
The cluster between 1360 and 1407 — where Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, Barclays, and Société Générale sit — prices a base case of gradual convergence toward fair value, with the BoK-Fed differential narrowing modestly and no acute China shock. These desks are bearish on USD/KRW (i.e., they expect the pair to fall from consensus levels), but their targets still sit above current spot, meaning they expect some mean reversion higher before year-end pressure reasserts.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 is the second-highest target and prices a more persistent dollar-strength regime, likely tied to a view that US exceptionalism in growth continues to limit Fed easing room. Despite carrying a bearish stance label on USD/KRW, JPM's 1440 target is well above spot, indicating the desk expects the pair to rise materially before any eventual softening.
TD Securities and ING, both neutral, bracket the 1400–1425 range and reflect uncertainty rather than conviction — appropriate given the binary nature of the China and Fed pivot risks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of November 5, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1342.29.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end of 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 contributing desks is 1380.0, implying the consensus expects USD/KRW to rise roughly 2.73% from current spot.
How wide is the disagreement among banks on USD/KRW?
Dispersion from the highest to lowest Dec-26 target is 180 points — Citi at 1460 versus StanChart at 1280 — reflecting materially different assumptions on the Fed-BoK path and China demand.
Which bank is most bullish on USD/KRW and which is most bearish?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460, pricing KRW weakness. StanChart holds the lowest at 1280, pricing further KRW strength from current levels.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the most aggressive USD/KRW bull case in the current consensus.
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