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USD/KRW traded at 1363.65 on November 7, 2026 — roughly 1.18% below the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, per the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Eighteen desks are on record, and the spread between the most and least constructive targets spans 180 points, an unusually wide band that reflects genuine disagreement over the BoK-Fed policy gap, semiconductor demand durability, and China's growth trajectory.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Nov 7, 2026): 1363.65
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median: 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min, 18 firms): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −1.18% (spot well below median)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| BofA | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Barclays | 1390.0 | bearish |
| TD Securities | 1400.0 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade below the consensus median heading into year-end?
The 1.18% gap between spot and the Dec-26 median reflects a market that has already priced a more benign outcome than the average desk anticipated when targets were set. Three forces are doing most of the work.
First, the BoK-Fed rate differential has compressed less aggressively than the Fed-hawkish scenario embedded in the upper half of the consensus range. The Fed's pace of cuts has remained measured, but the BoK has also moved cautiously, keeping the bilateral rate gap from widening sharply in the dollar's favour. That equilibrium is broadly KRW-supportive at the margin.
Second, semiconductor export volumes have held up better than the mid-year pessimists assumed. Korea's tech export cycle is the single most reliable leading indicator for KRW, and a resilient HBM and advanced logic demand environment — driven by AI infrastructure build-out — has kept the current account in surplus. A positive current account is a structural anchor for the won, and it limits how far USD/KRW can drift above spot without intervention risk from the BoK.
Third, China beta has been a mixed signal rather than a clean negative. KRW carries one of the highest sensitivities to Chinese growth momentum among Asian currencies. A stabilisation — rather than acceleration — in Chinese domestic demand has removed the tail risk of a sharp KRW selloff without providing a strong positive catalyst. The net effect is a range-bound pair that sits below the consensus median but has not broken decisively toward the bearish outliers.
Which desks are the outliers and what regime do they price?
The 180-point dispersion is the most informative single statistic in this week's snapshot. It is not noise — it maps to two distinct macro regimes.
Citi sits alone at the top with a 1460 target, a stance that prices a re-acceleration of dollar strength driven by Fed cuts arriving later and shallower than the market discounts, combined with a deterioration in Korea's trade terms if Chinese demand disappoints. At 1460, Citi is pricing roughly 7% upside from current spot — a meaningful call that requires both a hawkish Fed repricing and a semiconductor cycle rollover.
At the other end, StanChart targets 1280, implying nearly 6.2% KRW appreciation from here. That target prices an aggressive Fed easing path, a durable tech export recovery, and a China stabilisation that boosts regional risk appetite. UBS at 1300 sits close to StanChart and shares the same broad thesis.
The bulk of the 18-firm panel — including Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, and MUFG, all clustered at 1380-1385 — price a modest drift higher in USD/KRW from spot, consistent with a soft-landing scenario where the Fed eases gradually and Korea's export surplus provides only partial offset. J.P. Morgan at 1440 is the notable exception within the bearish-stance camp: the desk carries a bearish label on USD/KRW yet targets a level 5.6% above spot, suggesting its bearish conviction is relative rather than absolute — the pair rises, just less than some alternatives.
Dispersion is widest between the Citi and StanChart poles, and that gap will not close until the Fed's December dot plot and Korea's Q4 trade data provide cleaner signal on both legs of the trade.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate as of November 7, 2026?
USD/KRW spot stood at 1363.65 on November 7, 2026, placing it 1.18% below the 18-firm cross-desk median Dec-26 target of 1380.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end of 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 contributing desks is 1380.0, implying a modest implied consensus bias toward a higher USD/KRW from current spot levels.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast and which has the lowest?
Citi holds the top target at 1460, while StanChart holds the floor at 1280 — a 180-point spread that captures the full range of macro regime assumptions across the panel.
How does the BoK policy path affect the USD/KRW outlook?
A BoK that cuts in lockstep with the Fed keeps the bilateral rate differential stable and limits KRW depreciation pressure; a BoK that lags the Fed — or pauses while the Fed cuts — narrows the differential in KRW's favour, which is the scenario underpinning the sub-1300 targets from the most bearish desks.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the panel's highest USD/KRW target of 1460.
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